ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ season-opener against the Arizona Cardinals Sunday at Highmark Stadium:
1. This is when we start getting some answers to the many questions hovering over the Bills entering this season.
Our eyes are naturally going to first go to the revamped receiving corps. Will a dynamic playmaker emerge from a group that no longer has Stefon Diggs, one of the more dynamic playmakers to wear a Bills uniform in recent years? I didn’t see anything in the preseason to indicate we’re going to see that guy or those guys Sunday.
Working with an actual game plan in an elevated competitive atmosphere, Josh Allen is going to have to define who appears on that go-to list. It will come down to who he trusts enough to target, his ability to throw them open and how he and they make things happen during all the improvisational moments that are a part of Allen’s passing.
I don’t anticipate Joe Brady, in his first official game as the Bills’ full-time offensive coordinator, looking to force big plays. Instead, I see him allowing those opportunities to come about naturally, with Allen taking advantage of single coverage and other exploitable gaps in the secondary.
This feels like the kind of game where Dalton Kincaid, the most likely difference-maker among the Bills’ pass-catchers, is going to find his share of seams in the Cardinals’ pass coverage and build upon his 70-catch rookie season in 2023. However, I expect more of the offensive focus, at least at the outset, to be on running the ball and leaning heavily on James Cook to set a physical tone that should open some things up in the passing game while helping to slow down Arizona’s pass rush and reduce pressure on Allen.
2. With two significant changes, it’s particularly important for the offensive line to gain some early confidence.
Connor McGovern, Mitch Morse’s replacement at center who played left guard last season, and David Edwards, who replaced McGovern at left guard, is going to be in the crosshairs of the Cardinals’ defensive game plan. That’s one reason why it makes sense for the Bills to go with a run-heavy attack, at least at the outset.
Look for Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals’ head coach with a strong reputation as a defensive coordinator, to try to manufacture as much pass rush as possible through the middle. The goal will be to get Allen off his mark in the pocket and force him to do the bulk of his throwing on the move, especially with a group of receivers still trying to find their way and probably struggling to consistently gain separation.
It’s fair to expect that Allen is going to frequently pull the ball down and run, in addition to the designed quarterback runs in the game plan. He’ll have more than a few chain-moving gains against a defense that doesn’t have the familiarity with dealing with the biggest, most explosive running QB in the NFL.
3. The Bills’ defense, especially with the overhaul at safety, is going to face a stiff challenge right off the bat.
The Cardinals will undoubtedly look to overpower Buffalo’s nickel-based (five defensive backs) scheme. They’ll do so the way the Kansas City Chiefs did in last January’s divisional-round playoff win at Highmark: with considerable use of two- and three-tight-end looks.
That will put more punch into Arizona’s run game, which was fourth in the league in rushing yards last season and features a powerful back in James Conner, who shows good patience in letting holes develop. The Bills’ defensive front will have its hands full dealing with tight ends Trey McBride, Tip Reiman, and Elijah Higgins.
McBride, who caught 81 passes last season, will likely make things difficult in coverage for the new safety duo of Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin, as well as a linebacking corps missing its most talented player: Matt Milano.
4. Another big question is how Bobby Babich will fare in his first official game as defensive coordinator and signal-caller.
He has some massive shoes to fill. Sean McDermott did exceptionally well while serving as both head coach, DC and signal-caller last season. He was largely responsible for keeping the defense from collapsing as injuries piled up.
Babich not only has to find a way to navigate the Cardinals’ power-based rushing attack and tight ends – especially McBride – who can gash them for big gains, but he also must deal with one of the league’s more dangerous running quarterbacks in Kyler Murray. Murray and Allen are the only QBs in the NFL with 15,000-plus passing yards and 2,000-plus rushing yards since 2019. They are two of only six quarterbacks in league history to average 35-plus rushing yards per game.
Murray’s deep-ball production has dipped a great deal the past two seasons. Some of that is on him, but some of it also can be attributed to an absence of receivers who can stretch defenses. Enter first-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr., who was a major deep threat at Ohio State.
5. Overall, the Bills look to have the more talented team and should win, but it won’t be easy.
Season-openers, as we saw Thursday night when the Chiefs beat the Baltimore Ravens, tend to be somewhat sloppy. With limited contact practices and playing time for starters in the preseason, the first few weeks of the regular season become something of an extension of training camp and the preseason.
Most teams are still trying to find cohesion and develop chemistry. It’s true with those with more established rosters. It’s especially true for the Bills, who have undergone so much change in all phases.
But Allen is a significantly better quarterback than Murray, the game is in Orchard Park, and those factors should be enough for the Bills to come out on top.