You may not realize it, but every single weather forecast is delivered with some degree of uncertainty.
It’s not that meteorologists don’t know what they’re doing. Studies have proven that a high temperature forecast is accurate to within 2.5 degrees and a seven-day forecast is accurate about 80% of the time.
The uncertainty comes from the fact that the atmosphere is very complex. One tiny change in the amount of moisture in the air or the temperature in a certain location can force small changes within a few hours ... or huge changes within a few days.
The best thing a meteorologist can do is communicate where the uncertainties are and how they can affect the impacts that the predicted weather could bring.
Communicating uncertainty has become immensely important in other fields too. Take COVID-19, for example. Health experts have been walking a tightrope to make sure their messaging brings about the right response. They don’t want us nonchalant, but they don’t want panic either.
At the end of the day, whether its epidemiology or the weather, our best communication tool isn’t a cool graphic; it’s our words. Choose them carefully. Speak them kindly.
New episodes of Heather’s Weather Whys are posted to the WGRZ YouTube channel every Wednesday evening. You can also watch on Thursdays at 5:30 p.m. on Channel 2 News.
If you have a weather question for Heather to answer, send it to her at heather.waldman@wgrz.com or connect with her on Facebook or Twitter.
