BUFFALO, N.Y. — Things are looking better here in Erie County, that's according to some epidemiologists and infectious disease doctors. They say we may have already reached the peak in Western New York.
"Based on the data that we're receiving now from Erie County Public Health, it appears that we've at least plateaued and at least perhaps, the key word is perhaps, we're heading on the backside of the curve or heading downward," said Dr. Thomas Russo, UB chief of Infectious Disease.
Russo says he believes the county will know for sure within the next couple of days.
In New York City, deaths are increasing though Governor Andrew Cuomo says they are getting a steady number of cases now. Russo says it's likely that trend will continue here too.
"Deaths are going to lag two to three weeks behind new cases so I think we've seen that downstate where they think they're hitting the plateau but the number of deaths are increasing," he said.
Though Russo says Western New York has started to flatten the curve over the last week. John Sellick, a Kaleida Health epidemiologist, says Western New York could actually peak in a few weeks, especially with the rising number of cases in nursing homes.
"We've seen this in other parts of the country where it looks good for a short period of time and then turns and goes the other way," Sellick said.
That means it's not time to celebrate just yet.
"We have ways to go before we start chilling the champagne here. We're still a couple weeks away from what was originally predicted to be a peak of disease," Sellick said.
Sellick and Russo both say that means we still need to practice social distancing and follow public health measures in order to stop this virus.
That even includes once we're way down the back end of the curve, so there isn't a resurgence in cases.