ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Ask Josh Allen about this game and he'll be quick to remind you that it's only Week 4. He's right, but he whether he says it or not, he knows what's at stake.
The Buffalo Bills (2-1) are hosting the Dolphins (3-0) with the early division lead on the line.
The Bills are looking to avoid an 0-2 record in the AFC East after dropping the opener to the Jets. Given the injury to New York quarterback Aaron Rodgers in that game, and given the rate at which Miami is scoring points, the Dolphins appear to be the primary threat to Buffalo's three-year reign as AFC East Champ.
The Bills defense stepped to the forefront last week in a 37-3 win at Washington. Buffalo dominated with nine sacks and forced five turnovers. They became the first team since the Dallas Cowboys back in 1985 (12 sacks, 4 interceptions) to have at least nine sacks and four picks in a game.
Historic stuff, which is exactly describes what Miami is doing offensively.
The Dolphins became the first team since 1966 to score 70 points in a single game in a 70-20 win over the Denver Broncos last Sunday. Add to that Miami's 726 yards of total offense, and they become the first team in NFL history to reach those numbers.
They come to Buffalo leading the league at 43.3 points per game, while the Buffalo defense ranks second in scoring at 11.7. Granted, these numbers are over just three games, but you get the picture.
To what degree can the Bills slow Miami down?
The fact that Buffalo will be without veteran safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and that the Dolphins are getting speedy receiver Jaylen Waddle (concussion protocol) back in the lineup for this game complicates matters from the Bills perspective, but generally speaking some trends often hold true.
The familiarity between the two teams and the very nature of division match-ups may provide some clues.
Buffalo has won 11 of the last 13 meetings in this series, and took two of three including a wild card playoff win at home last season. Generally, if the Bills don't make mistakes to beat themselves, as they did in a 21-19 loss at Miami in Week 3 last season, they've been successful.
This will be the best defense Miami has faced. They scored 36 points in a season-opening win over the Chargers, but consider the fact Bill Belichick and the Patriots (division opponent) held them to just 24. New England did its best to keep Miami's numerous high-speed and explosive offensive threats in front of them.
If the Bills can hold Miami to 24 points, you have to like their chances.
That's because after turning the ball over four times in the season opening loss to the Jets, the Bills offense has shown it can be explosive with Josh Allen playing a smart and efficient game. He's turned the ball over just once while the offense has scored 68 of Buffalo's 75 total points in wins over the Raiders and Commanders. Add to that, in those games they're averaging more than 37-minutes in time of possession, which could indicate an ability to keep Miami's offense off the field.
Sometimes the best defense is a good offense. The cliché exists for a reason.
Getting back to the numbers, the Bills are second in the league in scoring through three games. The Miami defense is 20th at 23.7.
There's opportunity on that side of the ball. Advantage Buffalo.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. Sunday at Highmark Stadium.