ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Highmark Stadium:
1. This the biggest game of Week 4 and nothing else is even a close second.
Remarkably, it’s a 1 p.m. kickoff rather than a 4 o’clock or on Sunday Night Football. You know the NFL must be regretting that, particularly with an otherwise forgettable slate of games.
These are, at the very least, two of the top three teams in the AFC and, at the very most, the two best in the conference. It’s a battle of the NFL’s most prolific scoring teams, with the Dolphins leading the league by averaging 43.3 points per game followed by the Bills’ 30.3.
No other game played since the Bills’ season-opener against the New York Jets and a healthy Aaron Rodgers offers as much cause for anticipation or intrigue. Besides providing a chance for one of the teams to establish early superiority, it also gives the respective quarterbacks, the Bills’ Josh Allen and the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa, an opportunity to do a little separating among the NFL’s elite passers and influence MVP voting.
Additionally, this is going to be fascinating strategic match between the offensive creativity of Miami’s Mike McDaniel and the scheming on the other side of the ball by Sean McDermott, who has so far been highly impressive in taking on the additional role of defensive coordinator.
When this game is over, we’re going to have a better idea of the true quality of teams that have combined for five victories mainly against NFL lightweights.
2. The greatest challenge every defense faces against the Dolphins is coping with their incredible speed on offense.
Miami coach Mike McDaniel has figured out how to take full advantage of that with a variety of pre-snap motion that allows Tyreek Hill and other ultra-fast players to build a head of steam before running a pass pattern or getting the ball on runs. The Dolphins are taking pages out of Canadian Football League/Arena Football League game plans.
The Bills’ secondary, which isn’t loaded with the fastest players, will be put to a massive test. The best way to deal with the track team of Hill, fellow receiver Jaylen Waddle and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane in the passing game is to keep them in front of the coverage as much as possible and tackle well.
Sean McDermott likes to stay in nickel defense almost exclusively, so that means the Bills will have smaller defenders on the field when the Dolphins choose to run, something they do effectively. The absence of safety Jordan Poyer, who will miss the game with a knee injury, could be felt here because he’s one of the Bills more physical defensive backs and a good tackler. His replacement, Taylor Rapp, is solid and physical, but doesn’t have Poyer’s instincts or savvy. Poyer’s injury also is expected to result in Damar Hamlin seeing his first action of the season after being inactive the past three weeks.
3. The Bills’ most effective solution to the Dolphins’ offensive explosiveness is to apply consistent pressure on Tua Tagovailoa.
Buffalo’s defensive line has played exceptionally well the past two weeks in lopsided victories against the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. The nine sacks the Bills had against Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell is an aberration, due in no small part to poor offensive line play, but it does indicate a potency when it comes to getting after the QB.
Tagovailoa excels at getting the ball out of his hand quickly. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has the league’s fastest time to throw at 2.34 seconds. That could pose a problem for the Bills’ pass rushers, though McDermott has done a splendid job of moving them around and creating mismatches.
The Bills also must be stout when it comes to dealing with the Dolphins’ rushing attack. Linemen DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, A.J. Epenesa, and linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano need to rise to the occasion, as they have for most of the season thus far.
4. Josh Allen has been the epitome of a poised leader showing excellent patience in his last two games.
Unlike his disastrous showing against the Jets, he has not forced throws, allowing the action to come to him. He has evenly distributed passes to his receivers, connecting with nine different pass-catchers in each of the last two games. Allen also seems to have fully grasped the concept that the offense and defense don’t operate in vacuums and need to be complementary.
One of the big questions entering this game is whether he’ll be inclined to revert to his “hero ball” form if the Dolphins jump to substantive lead early and/or the game turns into a shootout. It might make sense for Allen to try to do as much as he can to make big plays with his arm, as well as with his legs – provided he doesn’t get carried away and turn the ball over frequently.
The Bills’ offense figures to face one of its sterner tests of the season from new Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who is one of the NFL’s best at devising schemes that can extinguish even the most explosive offenses. Allen and his offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, will need to be as dialed in and focused as they have in any game because of the variety of fronts and coverages Fangio employs.
5. An element of this game that hasn’t received nearly enough attention is the importance of the Bills’ rushing attack, which has been impressive the past two weeks.
The Bills can control the game’s tempo and keep it from getting out of hand with James Cook, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray working behind what has been stellar blocking. The Bills have controlled the line of scrimmage the past two weeks, with rookie guard O’Cyrus Torrence displaying dominance when it comes to opening holes for the run.
Dorsey must stay as committed as possible to pounding the ball and establishing a physical tone that could be difficult for the Dolphins to match defensively.