ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ divisional-round playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night at Highmark Stadium:
1. Epic showdown.
There isn’t another game in the postseason that, based purely on the matchup, will generate greater anticipation or excitement. Of course, the stakes are higher in the conference title games and Super Bowl.
But none of those clashes are going to bring together teams that produced as memorable a contest as the one between the Bills and Chiefs in the 2021 divisional round at Arrowhead Stadium. That was the game that no one, including those with zero connection to either club, wanted to see end. That was the game that, because of the way it ended, convinced the rest of the NFL to create a legacy rule to assure that both teams get a possession in overtime in the postseason. The action was so incredibly compelling, the league thought it criminal that the Bills’ offense wasn’t allowed to set foot on the field in overtime after the Chiefs won the coin toss and drove for a touchdown.
Sunday night’s rematch offers the promise of the same epic, back-and-forth, edge-of-your-seat entertainment. Though the Chiefs haven’t looked quite like the defending Super Bowl champs they are, and the Bills needed an almost miraculous late-season surge simply to reach the playoffs, they continue to be marquee opponents. They continue to provide must-see action.
2. Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes.
There is no greater quarterback rivalry in today’s NFL. It’s the current version of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. Same conference. Different divisions. Multiple clashes in the playoffs, as well as the regular season. The league must be ecstatic to know that there will be many more through the years.
Mahomes has the Super Bowl rings, but the respective talent level is, if not equal, as close to equal as you can get. Both are dynamic and highly productive passers. Both have an uncanny ability to extend plays to allow receivers to get open. Both are extremely effective runners, though Allen’s runs tend to be more spectacular because they have the added dimension of explosive power courtesy of his freakish speed for his larger frame.
One of the bigger storylines for this game is that Mahomes is making his first true postseason appearance on the road. That could easily work to his disadvantage, given the Chiefs have been undisciplined when it comes to penalties by their offensive line. Deafening crowd noise will undoubtedly cause issues with Mahomes’ ability to communicate with the rest of the offense, thus compromising or at least challenging his ability to get into better plays, his pass protection and route adjustments by receivers.
It’s also fair to say Allen has more incentive to perform at his very best, feeling the need to outshine Mahomes while finally getting him on Allen’s home turf.
3. The running backs.
A potential X factor for each team is its lead RB: James Cook for the Bills and Isiah Pacheco for the Chiefs.
Allen and Mahomes will complete their share of passes to their receivers and tight ends. However, keeping game-breaking throws to a minimum will be a priority for each defense. Each team’s biggest pass-catching threat will draw extra coverage, and opponents (including the Chiefs and Bills) have done a solid job of containing Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs (who has been limited in practice with a foot injury) and Kansas City’s Travis Kelce.
That leaves Cook and Pacheco to generate difference-making plays as runners and receivers. The game could very well tilt on what each does.
4. The defenses.
The inclination is to give the edge to the Chiefs because their defense has carried them throughout the season. KC’s D has a strong pass rush, led by Chris Jones, and tight coverage, with All-Pro slot cornerback Trent McDuffie able to limit mismatch opportunities the Bills will try to create in their passing game.
On the other hand, the Chiefs are vulnerable against the run, which should give the Bills the ability to have a more balanced offensive approach. Look for offensive coordinator Joe Brady to stick with running the ball on early downs to help create more favorable third-down situations.
Meanwhile, the Bills’ defensive injuries have piled up at an alarming rate. Buffalo’s D will be without safety Taylor Rapp, cornerback Christian Benford and linebacker Baylon Spector. Linebackers Terrel Bernard and Tyrel Dodson, and corners Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson will be game-time decisions, though it would be surprising not to see most, if not all, of them active.
One constant for the Bills’ defense is how well it has help up despite its rash of injuries that began occurring early in the season. That’s a testament to the team’s depth on that side of the ball, as well as the sterling work Sean McDermott continues to do with his defensive scheming and signal-calling.
5. Student vs. Teacher, Part VIII.
Sean McDermott, the student, has beaten the teacher, Andy Reid (who gave McDermott his coaching start with the Philadelphia Eagles), the last two times the teams met, both in the regular season and both at Kansas City.
McDermott has gotten the better of Reid four times, but they’ve all been in the regular season. In two playoff meetings, for the 2020 AFC title and the ’21 divisional round, the Bills have come up short.
The most excruciating, of course, was the divisional-round loss because of questionable coaching decisions, including leaving the Chiefs with 13 seconds in regulation to score the tying points that forced overtime.
For that reason, as well as for the Bills looking woefully unprepared to play in their crushing divisional-round loss against Cincinnati last year, McDermott’s coaching will be under tremendous scrutiny Sunday night.
I expect him, and the team, to pass the test.