FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Over the past couple of years, there has been a changing of the guard in the AFC East.
The Buffalo Bills... back to back division champions.
They arrive at Gillette Stadium Thursday night looking to take an important step toward making it three in a row.
The Bills and Dolphins are both atop the AFC East standings with 8-3 records, but Miami has the edge based on the fact they beat Buffalo week three in South Florida.
That speaks to the point. The Bills are 0-2 in the division. Quarterback Josh Allen knows that needs to change Thursday night.
"I mean division games. You've got to win them. We know our record this year in them. It's not easy going on the road and playing in division games. We have to understand that... be ready for a hostile environment."
In recent years, the Bills have had the answer in this environment, winning their last two games at Gillette Stadium. Buffalo has beaten New England in four of the last five meetings including the 47-17 thrashing in last season's wild card playoff game in Orchard Park.
The Bills have rebounded from back to back losses with a pair of wins over the Browns and Lions. They will be without starting left tackle Dion Dawkins (ankle) and star pass rusher Von Miller (knee) for this game. However, the overall trend is that they're getting healthier. Defensive ends AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau return after both missing time with ankle injuries. That will help the numbers on the defensive front and perhaps help account for Miller's absence to some extent.
Top cornerback Tre'Davious White is also expected to see more action after playing the first two defensive series Thanksgiving Day against the Lions. The Bills are slowly working him back into the line-up as part of his recovery from ACL surgery.
Starting center Mitch Morse will play after missing the Lions game with elbow and ankle injuries.
New England (6-5) enters the game having won three of their last four. The Patriots lost 33-26 at Minnesota Thanksgiving night. Second year quarterback Mac Jones has drawn a great deal of criticism for some of his decision making and execution, particularly in the red zone. The narrative in New England is generally that this has been a year of regression for him. However, he played very well against the Vikings going 28/39 for 382-yards and two touchdowns. It will be interesting to see if he can continue that success against a Buffalo secondary that's shown vulnerability.
The Patriots will be without starting running back Damien Harris (thigh) and offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn (foot) Thursday night.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense will face a Patriot defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per game (307.8), and sixth in scoring (18.4ppg). New England ranks 9th in the NFL against the pass (198.5 ypg) but has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks in losses to the Ravens and Bears. That's an area that Allen and the Bills could have an edge.
Buffalo and New England will meet twice over the final six games. The teams play the regular season finale in Orchard Park January 8th.
PREDICTION: Bills 27-24
