ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the New England Patriots Thursday night at Gillette Stadium:
1. This begins the most important stretch of the Bills’ schedule to date.
With an 0-2 record in the AFC East, there’s little room for a big stumble through these next three games against division opponents. By big, I mean anything more than one loss.
Win all three and the Bills put themselves on a path to win a third consecutive AFC East crown. Lose all or most of the games and they’ll be desperately trying to make up ground in the final three weeks of the season just to have a shot at a wild-card berth.
Starting with the Patriots to kick off the NFL’s Week 13 slate, the Bills will be facing three teams that figure to pose strong challenges. In each, the Bills have a decided edge at quarterback, which is the case in almost all of their games. However, the Pats rank fourth in the NFL in total defense and are in the top 10 in eight other defensive categories. They’ve also given some of their better performances in winning three of their last four games, including a 33-26 loss against Minnesota on Thanksgiving night.
The Bills’ AFC East losses are against the Jets and Dolphins, who they face again in weeks 14 and 15. The Jets’ defense has already shown it’s capable of stifling Josh Allen and the Bills’ explosive passing game. Miami’s offense continues to display quick-striking ability to keep pace with any team in the league, including the Bills.
2. Speaking of the Bills’ offense, it ranks second in the NFL in total yards and points … and yet there’s a growing sense that something isn’t quite right.
Most of that stems from lingering questions about Josh Allen’s throwing elbow. As long as he has multiple off-target throws, as he did before his impressive work in leading two scoring drives in the final two minutes of the Thanksgiving win at Detroit, there will be concerns that he’s still bothered by the elbow injury he suffered against the Jets. There will also be rumblings that, because of the rash of turnovers he had before the Lions’ game, he’s more worried about avoiding mistakes than making plays.
Allen remains the primary reason the Bills are 8-3 and still very much a strong postseason contender. But as talented as he is, he needs more help than he’s getting from his receivers not named Stefon Diggs. He needs more help from ball-carriers not named Josh Allen. He needs more help from his offensive line, though that won’t be easy with Dion Dawkins out of action with an ankle injury.
With a rare full week to prepare for a Thursday night game, both teams will have had plenty of time to concoct and practice game plans that take advantage of each other’s weaknesses. Bill Belichick is a master when it comes to that. Expect him to have scheming that will, at least at times, frustrate and befuddle Allen and the rest of the Bills’ offense.
3. The Bills’ defense needs to step up as large in this game as it has in any this season.
The Patriots’ offense is mediocre at best. The Bills can’t allow Mac Jones to find any sort of groove, as he did in throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions, against the Vikings. A couple of questionable officiating calls might have been all that prevented a New England victory.
Despite the fact they’ll be missing Von Miller with a knee injury, they should still have a formidable pass rush with Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa returning from ankle injuries. Presumably, cornerback Tre’Davious White will play more than the two series to which he was limited against the Lions in his first game since suffering a torn ACL on Thanksgiving 2021.
The Patriots’ running game ranks near the bottom of the NFL, and the Bills’ sometimes suspect run D can’t give New England any reason to believe it can have success on the ground and control the game’s tempo. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier should also be able to put together a game plan that uses a combination of fronts and coverage disguises that will confuse Jones and force him into mistakes.
4. Von Miller’s plan to play against the Jets and put off surgery he eventually will need to repair the torn meniscus he sustained against Detroit is as much about business as anything else.
In this case, the “business decision” is not the typical one players make when they shut themselves down, get surgery and wait until they’re fully healed before returning.
Miller is pushing himself to get back in action as soon as possible because he realizes the two most important seasons in the six-year, $120-million contract he signed are this one and 2023, because of the $51-plus in guaranteed money he collects in that span. He understands he was acquired to be a critical part of two-year window of opportunity to reach and win the Super Bowl.
We’ll see if Miller does, in fact, play against the Jets and, if so, how well he can perform and how well/whether his damaged knee holds up.
UPDATE: The Bills announced Thursday they are placing Miller on injured reserve. That means he will not only miss the game against the Patriots, but also the three that follow. Whether he'll return to action after the fourth game he misses, Dec. 24 at Chicago, remains to be seen.
5. Von Miller and Dion Dawkins aside, the Bills are getting healthier at a good time.
It matters that key members of their defense are returning to action as the stretch run begins. It also matters that others have grown to a point where they’re able to significantly pick up the slack, as Ed Oliver did with a career-best performance against the Lions that earned him AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors for the first time in his career.
