BUFFALO, N.Y. — After a very warm and tame start to November, the forecast will take a chilly turn with cold temperatures and lake effect rain and snow showers this weekend. From the 70s last weekend to 30s this weekend, get ready for this dose of weather whiplash!
The first system is what will be the remnants of what was Hurricane Nicole. After Nicole made landfall early Thursday, the storm system began to travel north and will ride along the Atlantic coast Friday. This will likely bring soaking rainfall to Western New York Friday with areas potentially receiving upwards of 2 inches of rain. Minor flooding could be a concern for areas susceptible to such conditions.
A Flood Warning for portions of southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties has expired. With the latest round of heavy rain in this region, flood-prone areas could fill with standing or slow-moving water. Small rivers, creeks and streams are also likely running high Friday night.
At the same time, a cold front from another low pressure system to the north will sweep through Friday night and into Saturday. This will usher the remnants of Nicole out and bring in behind it much cooler temperatures from the north.
This will lead to one of the coldest weekends yet this season where high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday could only be in the upper 30s or low 40s. That being said, and with a breeze out of the west or northwest, this will set up the chance for lake effect rain and snow showers beginning Saturday night and lasting through Monday.
It appears accumulations will be relatively low by regional standards with around 1 to 4 inches of snow for the Southern Tier, southern Erie and Wyoming counties. But the Chautauqua Ridge could see upwards of 5 inches of snow between Sunday and Monday.
Lake effect showers will pick up Saturday evening, starting as a rain/snow mix for Buffalo and the Southtowns, snow for the Southern Tier. Then as temperatures drop Sunday, precipitation will transition to all snow. Scattered lake snow showers will continue off and on Sunday and Monday with the most prevalent snow showers staying south of Buffalo.
At this point, there is the chance for snow accumulations south of the city. Keep in mind that snow will first melt on contact because the ground will be wet from Friday's rainfall. Still, the Southern Tier and portions of southern Erie and Wyoming counties could pick up accumulations and a Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday and/or Monday with the chance for accumulating snow.
As for Buffalo, areas east into Genesee County and north for the Niagara Frontier, these regions will get snow Sunday but it likely won't stick as well or be as impactful.
Snow showers will ease Monday from north to south as the lake breeze subsides. It'll be a cold day though with morning lows in the upper 20s or low 30s and afternoon highs only in the mid-upper 30s under a mostly cloudy sky.
Something to note: These lake showers could also have an impact on Sunday's Bills game at home against the Minnesota Vikings. It doesn't look like snow will be that heavy at this point, but snow showers cant be ruled out around Orchard Park on Sunday. Besides that, it will be a cold game with temperatures in the mid 30s.
