BUFFALO, N.Y. — Yes, Buffalo has received snow on the traditional Tax Day, April 15, in recent years, but it's not as prevalent as you may think.
Looking at weather observations from 1990 to 2020, it has snowed only five times on April 15 in the past 30 years. So, based on this, there's only about a 17 percent chance of seeing snow on Tax Day in Buffalo.
But those chances increase a little when you add in the number of times with any precipitation. Thirteen of the past 30 years have had either rain or snow fall on April 15. But even that math shows there's less than a 50 percent chance of seeing any precipitation on Tax Day.
So, in reality, based on weather observations from the past 30 years, Tax Day in Buffalo is usually dry. However, it has snowed on April 15 three years in a row from 2018 to 2020.
There is the chance for scattered snow showers Thursday night, but that snow would have to fall and accumulate fast because, as of 9 p.m. Thursday, there's none on the ground at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, so it's unlikely this recent streak will continue.
On the flip side, it was a very different scene for weather records in the 1990s. In back-to-back years on April 15, in 1993 and 1994, high temperatures were in the 80s on Tax Day. Those days happened to be the warmest of each month too.
The weather lore or myth of having it snow on Tax Day is similar to that of any spring holiday, like snow on Mother's Day or Easter. If it happens a few times in recent memory, you may be expect it to continue to occur.
But as with many spring and fall holidays in Buffalo, conditions can range greatly from year to year, and you only to need look at historical weather data to prove that.
The above weather records are based on data and observations taken at the National Weather Service Office in Buffalo at the Buffalo Airport.
