BUFFALO, N.Y. — Our Lake Erie is very, very warm and has been running record hot for many days.
The record stretch actually began in late September on the 28, 29 and 30 with a very warm water temperature of 69 degrees, which tied the record of 69 degrees, and then broke the record of 68 degrees on Sept. 30.
The record heat trend has extended for many more days into early October. With a "second summer" hitting, Lake Erie actually increased back to 70 degrees on Oct. 2 (record high was 69 in 2016) and also on Oct. 3 (record high was 68 in 2016 and 1931). On Oct. 1 the warm lake tied the record high of 69 (set in 2016).
On Oct. 4 and Oct. 5 the lake then warmed up even more, back up to 71 degrees, which continues to break records by several degrees now (the old record is 68 F in 2016).
Lake Erie's water temperatures at or above 70 degrees has not happened in October since at least 1927 based on data collected since then. This is according to National Weather Service's historical Lake Erie temperatures data.
A warmer lake often means the lake water will stay warmer longer into the fall season, since water has a higher heat capacity and lakes much longer than air to cool or warm. This increases our area's chances of early season lake effect snow with one major component in tact, a warm lake. The other two main components are cold enough air moving over the warmer lake water, and a well aligned west or better yet southwest wind off the lake to get the lake effect snow machine going.
Looking at past decades when the water temperature was very warm in early October, there were several years there was early season snow, usually in November, when our area would finally get a shot of cold enough air. It is not a guarantee, but it does increase our chances. Do note though, that the last time our lake warmed almost this much, we didn't get hammered with the snow until December. But in a similar warm lake year in 2014, we got hammered in November.
But also note, with a strong El Nino setting up for this cold season, this may not allow as much cold air to drop down. The Storm Team 2 winter outlook will be coming out soon and cover all of this.
And Storm Team 2 will definitely be watching the fall season extra closely for any lake effect snow potential.
A warmer Lake Erie in early October is becoming more common in recent decades, when looking at the historical Lake Erie temperatures data since 1927. Going from having very warm lake water once or twice a decade, to recently almost every other year. Definitely something else to also watch.
The NWS Lake Erie water temperature data is taken at the Buffalo Water Treatment Plant located on Lake Erie at the entrance to the Niagara River.
Note, the average Lake Erie water temperature for early October is 64 degrees.
