BUFFALO, N.Y. — Yes, you may have already heard that the Aurora Borealis, more commonly known as the Northern Lights, has been active this week.
That's thanks to a massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from the sun earlier this week and was one of the stronger events in the past year or two. With the Earth's orientation and rotation around the sun, this CME was expected to reach and impact the Northern Hemisphere beginning as early as Tuesday night through Friday.
But the timing and intensity of the resulting geomagnetic storms are critical when trying to forecast viewing the Northern Lights, which is the visible result of the solar activity interacting with the Earth's atmosphere.
For example, the arrival of the strongest portion of this storm was early Wednesday. And unfortunately for Buffalo and Western New York, that meant poor viewing because the sun began to rise and it was already daylight.
That being said, this solar event is expected to continue Thursday night, and the greater Buffalo area will have a mostly clear sky to try and view it.
But the intensity of this event will be lower than it was Wednesday, meaning that the probability of the Aurora Borealis manifesting over Buffalo is not as high. Wednesday night's viewing was a G3 level event, where as Thursday the event has decreased to a G2.
The Space Weather Prediction Center, NOAA's agency for predicting space weather and monitoring solar activity, said in a release Thursday evening that "We expect these disturbances to last through Friday and into Saturday, primarily at the minor to moderate level. This should keep the aurora active but at a higher latitude than yesterday (Wednesday)."
Fantastic viewing is expected to continue across southern Canada, the northern Great Lakes, and Alaska on Friday night.
But viewing with previous G2 storms have previous been reported as far south as New York and Idaho, so this time it could include Buffalo, and the forecast will cooperate. There will be a mostly clear sky Thursday night with comfortable summer temperatures in the mid 60s.
To view the northern lights, you want to be in an area with minimal to no-light pollution. Thankfully, the moon also is not expected to rise until early Friday morning.
Look north, a little above the horizon. It may take 20 minutes or so for your eyes to adjust to the darkness of the night sky, but in the distance you'll be able to see a faint green glow. That's the Aurora Borealis!
Do not expect the event to be like the picturesque, streams of color above your head like what occurs farther north.
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