BUFFALO, N.Y. — A very active Atlantic hurricane season appears to be on the way and it may rival the last high-octane season of 2005 which was the season of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
Last week, the National Oceanic And Atmospheric administration(NOAA) released their ominous forecast, stating their confidence is very high giving this season a 85% chance of an above normal season.
NOAA's forecast calls for 17 to 25 named tropical systems. Eight to 13 of those systems could become hurricanes with 4 to 7 of those becoming major hurricanes which is any hurricane a category 3 or higher.
On average, 10 named storms occur each season in the Atlantic with six becoming hurricanes, and 2 to 3 becoming major hurricanes. So clearly this season could see about a 40-50% increase in typical hurricane activity.
The reason behind this forecast for a very active hurricane season is that the Atlantic Ocean is currently very warm with temperatures in the tropical regions well above average. That aids in hurricane formation and sustainability.
Also, the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) circulation is trending towards a La Niña. During a La Niña, wind shear in tropical regions of the Atlantic ocean, which can often disrupt hurricane development, will be far less than normal meaning more storms will be able to form and continue to grow.
Hurricane season just began on June 1st and ends November 30. Hurricane activity is most significant normally in the month of August and September.
This hurricane season will be watched closely even for potential local impacts in Western New York and northern PA, as a more active season could mean our area deals with remnants from tropical systems more often.
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