BUFFALO, N.Y. — The Farmer's Almanac is out with its winter forecast, but how accurate is it? Storm Team 2 Meteorologist Patrick Hammer looks at the science.
A cold and snowy winter is predicted this year across all of the eastern Great Lakes region as well as all of New York state, according to the Farmer's Almanac. It comes as no surprise as it seems the Farmer's Almanac tends to predict snowy conditions across our region almost every winter.
The Farmer's Almanac is also predicting a winter that will feature a wet west coast, a cold and snowy upper mid-west, and an active storm track across the south that will bring cool, stormy, and snowy weather at times from Texas all the way up through the eastern seaboard.
The Farmers Almanac states that it is latching onto the idea that an El Niño is developing this year and will impact our winter weather. Its forecast formula predicts that cold temperatures really could prevail across the entire country. The Farmer's Almanac also states it makes its predictions using a top-secret mathematical and astronomical formula it has used for 115 years.
Given that the Farmer's Almanac uses a so-called "top secret" formula, it's probably a good idea to not take the forecasting too seriously.
But, is the Farmer's Almanac, right? History says most likely no, and some of its basic forecasts don't really make sense with a predicted onset of El Niño conditions this winter season.
During a typical El Niño, winter, the jet stream behaves in such a way that cooler and stormy weather are prevalent across the southern tier of the United States, as well as up the eastern seaboard. The jet stream's path also helps to promote warmer and drier conditions from the Pacific Northwest through the upper Midwest. The Farmer's Almanac is calling for almost the opposite outcome in these regions. While the Farmer's Almanac has had over 100 years of forecasting history behind them, and it has sometimes been accurate, but last year, the Farmer's Almanac's winter forecast was almost entirely wrong for the entire country.
One of the outcomes for the upcoming winter that we agree with the Farmers Almanac, is that the eastern seaboard, which endured a snow drought last season, will likely see a far colder and snowy winter.
This year, conditions will warm up and dry out the further west you go, which puts Western New York in the crosshairs between a drier and warmer weather pattern to our west, and a colder and snowy or weather pattern to our east, which makes the forecast here a bit of a challenge this far out.
With the upcoming El Niño weather pattern, what Western New York may not get in lake effect snow, could be made up from from bigger, larger systems that affect a large part of the east this upcoming winter season.
For your local forecasts, check out StormTeam2 and our group of meteorologists as we come up with our prediction for the upcoming winter in the months ahead.
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