BUFFALO, N.Y. — As of March 1, meteorological spring is in full swing across the country. Furthermore, long range weather models are hinting at the arrival of more spring-like conditions as spring officially begins on Thursday, March 19.
The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Outlooks issued for Thursday shows above average temperatures and higher precipitation chances will be present from March 12 -18 for most of the country.
Western New York is included in above average temperature range. Typically, temperatures for this time of year mean morning lows in the mid 20s and afternoon highs in the low 40s. But when you factor in this temperature outlook, WNY could experience morning lows in the low 30s and afternoon highs near 50 degrees from March 12 -18.
And in terms of any rain or snow, WNY has near normal chances for precipitation through the middle of the month. With warmer than average temperatures expected for the same time frame, this would likely mean a better chance for rain than snow.
The Northeast River Forecast Center also released their updated Spring Flood Outlook that goes through March 18. There's no change from the previous flood outlook for WNY, which means flooding is possible if conditions are right. For this time of year, that would mean possible river flooding from heavy rain and melting snow.
It is interesting to note the below average flood risk for the southern half of New England showcased in green in the above image. This includes southern New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. One reason for this is the lack of snow across the region, which WNY can relate to.
This is all key information as it shows what conditions WNY could expect for St. Patrick's Day. Though the exact forecast is still too far to determine, jet stream patterns and these outlooks point to a more mild St. Patrick's Day in WNY with the chance for rain.