BUFFALO, N.Y. — Once again, those of us interested in long range forecasting, including Storm Team 2, are looking to the Pacific Ocean and the behavior of its water temperatures as we head into the spring and summer season.
Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific off the coast of South America are warming rapidly and an El Niño Watch has been issued by the Climate Prediction Center.
The watch means that there is about a 60% chance of an El Niño developing in the next 3 months.
For the past three years, these Pacific waters have been chillier than average, and thus the northern hemisphere's climate pattern has been in a La Niña. But, for the first time since the winter season of 2018-2019, water temperatures are warming to above normal levels. That means that El Niño conditions are expected this summer season through the upcoming winter season.
So what does the mean to us?
Right now, climate models are projecting this to be potentially weak to moderate El Niño. When looking at historical data, El Niño's tend to bring cooler than average and drier than average conditions during the summer months here in Western New York.
It is way too early to make any speculations about the upcoming winter as the exact strength of this El Niño is still unknown, but on a very general scale, El Niño's tend to bring warmer and drier conditions to the Great Lakes region during the winter months.
This is by no means a forecast for the upcoming winter, but it is something to take note of, if in fact, this El Niño does develop.
