BUFFALO, N.Y. — As the season enters its peak, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an update Thursday as to how many storms they're anticipating and their potential strength for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
The update echoes the initial outlook that was released on May 21st, warning it will likely be an "extremely active" season. This also comes after nine named storms have come and gone since the start of the season.
With this in mind, the 2020 outlook has been upgraded to include 19 to 25 named storms instead of the chance for 13 to 19. The number of hurricanes has also been upgraded, from 6 to 10 to 7 to 11 with hurricanes Hanna and Isaias already in the books. Both were only category one hurricanes.
The potential number of major hurricanes has not changed in the update, with possibly three to six, category 3 or greater, hurricanes this season. The strongest hurricanes typically develop in September and October, when sea surface temperatures are the warmest.
A few of the factors that determined this forecast is the continuation of active hurricane seasons since 1995, consistent with warmer ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds.
There is also the potential for an enhanced West African monsoon and the development of a La Nina. As of July 9th, the Climate Prediction Center mentioned there is a 50 percent chance a La Nina could develop in the fall and continue into the winter. And as weather patterns are connected all across the globe, a La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could weaken wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing for stronger tropical systems.
The National Hurricane Center is also reminding U.S citizens that this updated outlook is not a landfall forecast, as many tropical storms weaken or miss landfall in the continental United States each year. But it's important to be prepared when with what could be one of the most active seasons of the past decade.
