NEWFANE, N.Y. — The board and commission that control how much water is let out of Lake Ontario forecast the lake will not hit flood levels seen in previous years, even if the spring season is rainy.
During a virtual meeting Tuesday, members of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board said that while the lake level is above average for April conditions are not worrisome at this point.
The lake has been rising 0.2 inches per day over the last two weeks, which is a seasonal rise given the combination of spring rain and snowmelt. Short-term and localized weather events could still cause problems as well.
"We're expecting that water levels will continue to rise for a few more weeks and then taper off and crest well below any kind of flooding levels in the past," said Bryce Carmichael, Section Secretary for the Great Lakes and Ohio River Division of the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board.
The Army Corps of engineers reported Friday that the water level was 246.59 feet, 11 inches above the long-term monthly average but still 19 inches below the highest monthly average of record for April.
"We will probably see a few more inches up to 6 to 8 inches at most in the next few weeks," Carmichael added.
The forecast is a good omen for communities along both the Canadian and American shores of Lake Ontario. Ed Pettitt said he has been wary in recent weeks and has already had stone and sandbags put in along his lake frontage in Newfane.
"Two weeks ago when we saw how close the water came up to the house that really concerned us. I was actually more concerned than I was two years ago," Pettitt said.
In 2017 and 2019, Lake Ontario experienced widespread flooding along its shores due to an abnormally wet spring and snowmelt. Since then people like Pettitt and communities like Newfane have invested heavily in resiliency tools. A berm will soon be installed near Pettitt's home to break up waves.
"We feel a lot better now recently with all the work done," Pettitt said.
"I can't imagine them having Lake Ontario waters hold anymore. If this is the new normal thank goodness New York State has come out with REDI Funds and we hope this is it," said Newfane Town Supervisor John Syracuse.
Newfane has spent $16 million in REDI funding (Resiliency Economic Development Initiative) over the past couple of years Syracuse said. A new break wall was installed and their pier was fortified with massive boulders after being damaged in 2017 and 2019. During those record years, many neighbors blamed the guidelines which dictate how much water is let out of Lake Ontario through the Moses-Saunders dam, called 'Plan 2014.'
Some called for International Joint Commission (IJC), which oversees the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, to revert back to their previous guidelines, 'Plan 1958,' but Carmichael said that plan would have also been inadequate.
In November, a panel finished part one of its review of 'Plan 2014.' The IJC announced Tuesday that the second phase had begun and Carmichael added that the review is expected to be completed in two to years years.