BUFFALO, N.Y. — There’s still two full months before the NHL regular season starts, so there’s still time for Kevyn Adams to trade for a top-6 forward, but he’s also said he believes what the team has now can score goals.
Two years ago, the Buffalo Sabres were third in the NHL scoring 3.57 goals per game. Only the Edmonton Oilers and Boston Bruins scored more. Last season, the Sabres fell to 23rd scoring just 2.98 goals per game.
The power play was the biggest reason why. For much of the year two seasons ago, Buffalo was in the top three in power play percentage, but a late season slump dropped them to 9th at 23.4%. Last year they fell to 28th at 16.6%.
That means there are a lot of “ifs” that have to fall into place for Buffalo to improve enough to make the playoffs. I’ve talked a lot about the “ifs”, so let’s take a deep dive into them.
Let’s start with Lindy Ruff. He has been a head coach with the Dallas Stars and New Jersey Devils for eight years since being fired by Terry Pegula. In his tenure the Devils were ninth, fourth, 19th and 26th in NHL goal scoring. With the Stars they were 10th, second, first and 17th.
When it comes to the power play with New Jersey, Ruff's team was 14th, 13th, and 28th twice. With Dallas he was 23rd, 12th, fourth and 20th.
That doesn’t instill much confidence in me that the power play will be better. It starts with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power and they both need to be quite a bit better at quarterbacking the two power play units. It also has to be more than 'let’s find Tage Thompson for a one-timer and if that doesn’t work, we’re out of answers.' Two years ago teams gave them Thompson and he was third in the NHL with 20 power play goals. Last year he fell to 43rd in the league with just nine goals with the extra man in seven fewer games because teams were determined to not let Thompson beat them.
I think Ruff has been pigeon holed as a defensive coach, but he has had plenty of teams that can score goals including 2005-06 when the Sabres were fifth in the NHL and the next season when they led the league by a lot scoring 3.63 goals per game. I think he can help this team score more goals.
Before I get back to Thompson, as he’s a key “if”, Buffalo must get the same or better season from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. When Ruff was in Buffalo, he liked to ride his goalies in Dominik Hasek and Ryan Miller. Out of necessity last season, Don Granato needed Luukkonen to do that and he put up some of the best numbers in the league.
I expect Ruff will use Luukkonen a lot. In Dallas, Kari Lehtonen twice played 65 games and once had 59 in Ruff's four seasons there. Ruff didn’t have the goaltender to ride in New Jersey so only once did he ride one guy and it was Vitek Vanecek when he played 52 games. If that’s Ruff’s plan, James Reimer will be the backup and Devon Levi will be in Rochester. I think Ruff will help Luukkonen’s confidence where he continues to flourish.
For me Thompson is the other key. The big centerman went from eight goals to 38 goals in just one season. The next year he ripped home 47 goals, but he fell drastically last season to 29 goals. Thompson broke his hand and then tried to play with it thinking he needed to get back and he couldn’t shoot. I think Thompson is closer to the 47 goal, 94 point player he was two years ago and I think Ruff will put him in position to succeed. He helped Jesper Bratt become an 83 point player last year in New Jersey and Nico Hischier was an 80 point player just two years ago.
If Jack Quinn stays healthy, there’s no question in my mind he’ll score 30 goals in this league. The problem is, Quinn has done nothing to make me think he can stay healthy.
In 2021-22, Quinn only played in 45 of the Rochester Americans 72 games. He played two with the Sabres. In 2022-23, Quinn only missed seven games with the Sabres, but last year, two major injuries kept him to just 27 of Buffalo’s 82 games. Both Quinn and Mattias Samuelsson tend to put themselves in bad positions to take hits they don’t really need to take and it’s getting them hurt. Counting on Quinn is just way too risky until he can prove he can avoid injuries.
I would play Samuelsson on a third paid with Connor Clifton to try to reduce the time he’s on the ice which may help him stay healthier. They both need to examine ways to not put themselves in position to take hits that will injure them. Some injuries can’t be helped, but others can.
Alex Tuch only had 59 points last season which tied him with Dahlin for the team lead. In his career, Tuch averages 57 points over 82 games. He averages 24 goals. I really think his career year of 36 goals and 79 points two years ago is an outlier. I think if the Sabres are counting on those numbers, it won't happen. I think 25 to 30 goals is reasonable and maybe around 65 points. Tuch getting back to 79 points is an “if” I don’t think will happen.
Another player who had a career year two seasons ago with 31 goals is Dylan Cozens. Again what do they have in this 23-year-old? Do they have a 31 goal, 68 point guy or a 18 goal and 47 point player? Cozens again went to the World Championship and was Canada’s leading goal scorer but if Adams is counting on a guy with 31 goals, I’d be surprised if that happened. There is a big but to this “if”. If Ruff can help Cozens be a center that can shut down the other team’s best player and he can get to maybe 25 goals, that would be better than the player of two years ago.
At age 18, Zach Benson did get to double figures in goals with 11, so there’s an “if” here of can he improve on that and become the goal scorer he always has been in every league he’s played in? In his last season of junior hockey, Benson netted 36 goals and 98 points in just 60 games. That’s not an “if” I’d count on.
Somebody has got to play in the top 6, so is 32-year-old Jason Zucker up to it? Last year he only had 14 goals in 69 games, but two years ago with the Pittsburgh Penguins he had 27 goals in 78 games. That’s another “if” I wouldn’t count on because Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin don’t play for the Sabres.
The last “if” for that spot would be Jiri Kulich. The 20-year-old was an AHL All-Star scoring 27 goals in 57 games, for the Amerks, but in five playoff games he didn’t score a goal and I didn’t see anything that told me that the kid is remotely ready for the NHL.
Kulich is still very young and he could be having a great summer making excellent strides. He could show up in training camp and do what Benson did last year and give the Sabres no choice but to keep him. The thing is if they keep Kulich, he must be in the top 6. His skill set doesn’t fit playing with Sam Lafferty and Beck Malenstyn.
I think the Sabres are a better team than last year because Adams has made them much tougher to play against. Maybe since there are, now guys will have Dahlin’s back, so he can become the superstar that he’s capable of being.
Not all of these “Ifs” are going to happen, but in order for the Sabres to make the playoffs, some of them have to. There’s no choice. Adams is likely going to have to turn to “ifs” because it doesn’t look like a trade for a top six forward is in the making, but let me be clear, you never know, there's still a little over two months until the season starts.