ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Lost in the celebration of a fourth Buffalo Bills playoff appearance in five seasons was the disappointment over falling short of the widely held expectation they would secure home-field advantage through the postseason.
It’s understandable.
For 17 years, the team was under a massive dark cloud that was a historically bad playoff drought. Having that lifted in a way that shifted the culture from consistent dysfunction to perennial contention makes it easy to forget what now have become minor imperfections. So does the likelihood of the Bills winning a second consecutive AFC East championship by beating the lowly New York Jets Sunday.
And the fact the Bills are a wild-card entry, rather than the top-seeded club in the AFC, should not be of major concern. Sure, the three-game road to the Super Bowl is more challenging than the two-game path that also comes with the top seed.
But when you look at the four other AFC teams that have clinched playoff spots (Tennessee, Kansas City, Cincinnati and New England) and the other teams in the hunt (Indianapolis, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Pittsburgh Steelers, though they need a good deal of help, and the Baltimore Ravens, though they need even more help), there’s every reason to think the Bills can go the distance.
On the list of potential opponents, only the Colts figure to present the greatest threat because of their 41-15 pounding of the Bills on Nov. 21 at Highmark.
Besides what the scoreboard showed, the most troubling lasting impression from that game for the Bills was the 264 rushing yards they allowed, including 185 and four touchdowns by Jonathan Taylor (who also caught a TD pass).
Since that game, however, the Colts, thanks to injuries and Covid-19 issues and general lapses, have become vulnerable enough to find themselves still in need of locking up a playoff spot at 9-7. Frank Reich is one of the very best coaches in the league.
But opponents have found ways to put more of the offense in the hands of quarterback Carson Wentz, rather than Taylor, and Wentz doesn’t inspire a high level of confidence in his ability to carry his team on his shoulders.
Not the way Josh Allen does.
Plus, it’s hard to see the Bills looking as incompetent against the run as they did against Indianapolis … or, for that matter, their first encounter with the Patriots … or even their loss at Tennessee, when Derrick Henry ran all over Buffalo’s defense.
The Bills rank 19th in the NFL against the run, which is far from great, but they have gotten steadily better with interior play from tackles Harrison Phillips and Ed Oliver. The Bills also have made some notable progress with their own rushing attack, thus allowing them to be more balanced and potent offensively.
The Chiefs are playing better defense than when the Bills dominated them, 38-20, on Oct. 10 at Arrowhead Stadium. But Kansas City’s offense, and especially Patrick Mahomes, doesn’t look anywhere near as scary as when it proved to be the biggest difference in the Chiefs beating the Bills in the 2020 AFC Championship Game.
Now it’s the Bills who bring a frightening amount of offensive firepower to the postseason. And with the ability to jump to early leads, they’re more than capable of quickly taking an opponent out of a run-first mentality.
Consider:
- The Bills lead the NFL in point differential at plus-177.
- All of their 10 victories this season have been by 12-plus points. That makes the Bills only the fifth team since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to win 10 or more games by at least a dozen points.
And here’s some encouraging food for thought: Each of the four others (the 1985 Bears, 1999 Rams, 2002 Buccaneers and 2007 Patriots) went onto to reach the Super Bowl, with all but the Pats hoisting the Lombardi trophy.