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Carucci Take 2: In a battle of MVP candidates, Allen should have the edge over Jackson

Which of the NFL’s leading MVP candidates, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, will make the most plays?

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium:

1. Multiple factors usually determine the outcome of every game, but this one will be decided by the answer to the following question: Which of the NFL’s leading MVP candidates, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, will make the most plays?

I’m looking forward to some of the more exciting, back-and-forth action we’ve seen since the Bills’ divisional-round playoff loss at Kansas City last January. With their extraordinary skills as passers and runners, Allen and Jackson can and likely will take over the game and carry their respective teams on their backs, just as Allen and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes did about nine months ago.

Consider:

  • Allen and Jackson are averaging a combined 7.3 offensive touchdowns per game. That’s the highest total for opposing quarterbacks entering a Week 4 matchup or later since 1970.
  • This will mark the second time since 1970 that opposing players entered a Week 4 encounter or later averaging seven-plus offensive TDs per game. The other was when Kurt Warner of the St. Louis Rams and Steve McNair of the Tennessee Titans clashed in Week 8 in 1999, a season that ended with Warner’s Rams beating McNair’s Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV.

I expect Allen to have the edge in this one because I think he will find more success against the Ravens’ defense than his 2018 NFL Draft classmate will against the Bills’ D. Both defenses are dealing with significant injuries, but I believe the Ravens have more flaws, especially in pass coverage.

Look for Allen to again deliver big passing numbers, though I anticipate Baltimore will give up more game-breaking plays than Miami did last Sunday.

Jackson will make his share of plays, to be certain. I just don’t think he’ll be able to make enough to overcome what Allen and the rest of the Bills’ offense generate.

2. Once again, the Bills’ secondary should be far more of an asset than liability.

It’s still hard not to marvel at how well a defensive backfield whose starters were all wiped out by injury performed against the Dolphins. The group did far more than merely hold up. It played well enough to allow the Bills to win, which failed to happen because of execution mistakes on offense and special teams.

And the reserves did so without the help of two of the team’s better defensive linemen, Jordan Phillips, who will also miss Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury, and Ed Oliver, who is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Bills will be without cornerback Christian Benford, who suffered a hand injury against Miami. However, they might get Dane Jackson, who has practiced on a limited basis, back from the neck injury he suffered against Tennessee on Sept. 19. He’s listed as questionable. Safety Jordan Poyer, who has also been limited in practice with a foot injury, is questionable as well.

The key to the Bills’ ability to avoid Jackson beating them with his passing arm is the play of the safeties. Jaquan Johnson and Damar Hamlin were mostly superb against the Dolphins while filling in for Micah Hyde, out for the season with a neck injury, and Poyer. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will likely again emphasize taking away the deeper throws Jackson can make and rely on his safeties and other DBs to prevent shorter and intermediate throws from turning into breakaway runs after the catch.

3. It’s incumbent upon Sean McDermott and his coaching staff to do a better job of managing the game.

Dating back to last season, the Bills are 0-7 in one-score games. That is a troubling trend. No single reason is to blame, though it’s fair to say when a team comes up short when in striking distance of victory, details matter the most.

The blunders aren’t always as obvious as a dropped touchdown pass, a dropped pick-six, or a missed chip-shot field goal, as was the case last Sunday. They also include time management and strategic decisions. Those fall on coaching.

Perhaps the Bills will win this one in blowout fashion, as they did their first two games of the season. Details, while likely on point for most of those encounters, tend to be more easily overlooked in lopsided victories.

If Sunday’s game is, in fact, the back-and-forth affair I’m expecting, details will factor heavily in the final score.

4. Once and for all, the Bills must get over their short-yardage hump.

In the last two games, they’ve run 25 plays in which 1 or 2 yards were required for a first down or touchdown. They succeeded on just over half of them, with 13.

That’s unacceptable for one of the best offenses in the NFL. It speaks, first, to the Bills’ lack of an effective running game, but also to an offense whose identity is Allen’s arm and legs. Period.

I’m not suggesting for a moment that it’s a bad idea to lean so heavily on one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I’m saying that more consideration needs to be given to expanding the offensive approach and finding ways to successfully move the ball on the ground, especially with heavy rain and wind in the forecast for Sunday. That’s something new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey needs to figure out.

I think the backfield talent, led by Devin Singletary, is sufficient. However, I don’t believe the offensive line is doing its part to consistently generate the push necessary to open running lanes, and I’m still looking for the greater physicality that the return of talented O-line coach Aaron Kromer was expected to bring. Maybe he simply doesn’t have the people up front to get the job done, but I’m not convinced a solution is unattainable.

5. There was no reason to panic about the Bills after their Week 3 loss against the Dolphins. Sunday’s game against the Ravens will demonstrate why.

The Bills were the better team than Miami. They found a way to lose with multiple egregious blunders. That is uncharacteristic for team that has ranked as one of the NFL’s best since 2020.

Jackson’s ability to give an other-worldly performance could make it a moot point, but the Bills will play a cleaner game this week. Given what Allen should be able to do against that suspect Raven secondary, that will be enough to push the Bills to 3-1.

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