ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons at Highmark Stadium:
1. The Bills’ biggest opponents in the next two games are themselves.
The only way that they stumble Sunday or in their Jan. 9 regular-season finale against the New York Jets is if they allow their status as a heavy favorite to compromise their focus.
It’s fair to conclude, based on the way the team has performed at times, that they haven’t always been as dialed in as necessary. Last year’s success and the lofty preseason expectations for this season undoubtedly seeped into the Bills’ collective psyche and provided a false sense that they could win by simply showing up.
Sean McDermott seems to have gotten them out of that mindset. Their second-half surge before losing in overtime against Tampa Bay could be viewed as the launching pad for what we’ve seen the past two weeks – and possibly into the playoffs.
The devastating Monday night loss against New England likely contributed to the first-half sleepwalk six days later, but McDermott finally got his team to shake it off and handle its business against Carolina and the Patriots.
The Bills have never looked more ready to play than they were at Foxborough, Mass., last Sunday. As long as McDermott can keep them locked into the understanding that the AFC East title is theirs for the taking as long as they play to the level of the solid postseason contenders they are, and win their final two games against imminently beatable opponents.
2. Matt Ryan will present more of a challenge than what the Bills’ defense has seen in all but one of their previous five games.
The exception, of course, is Tom Brady, who delivered the winning touchdown throw in OT three weeks ago.
The 36-year-old Ryan is a smart, savvied veteran quarterback more than capable of doing what’s needed to win a single game. He isn’t likely to be the least bit bothered by the snow and cold temperatures that are forecasted for Sunday. Nor will he likely have problems dealing with crowd noise.
Ryan does his best work from the pocket, so it will be incumbent upon the Bills to be relentless with their pass rush to consistently get him off his mark and make him uncomfortable.
3. Cordarrelle Patterson is dangerous.
After Ryan, the second-largest circle on the Bills’ defensive game plan surrounds Patterson’s name. The guy is a multi-purpose difference-maker who can do damage as a rusher, receiver and returner.
The Falcons are Patterson’s fifth team, and this is his ninth season. But at 30, he still shows a good deal of speed, explosiveness and elusiveness.
The Bills can’t allow Patterson (or anyone else) to make that one big play to give the Falcons hope they can pull off a massive upset.
4. From the For What It’s Worth Department: The Falcons are a better team on the road than at home.
Of their seven victories this season, five have come away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. They’re also 3-1 against AFC opponents, 4-7 against NFC teams. One more: They’re 6-6 in outdoor games, 1-2 under a roof.
5. Cole Beasley’s return to the lineup shouldn’t ruin the great thing the Bills discovered with Isaiah McKenzie in his place last Sunday.
Josh Allen, playing arguably the best game of his NFL career, utilized McKenzie’s exceptional quickness and athleticism to the fullest. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll found ways to incorporate McKenzie into a game plan that consistently exploited a Patriots defense that made itself vulnerable to what McKenzie could do at the second and third levels by concentrating on keeping Allen in the pocket.
Other targets, including Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox, also benefitted. But McKenzie reaped the biggest rewards because he usually found himself being covered by New England’s worst defensive back.
That’s how it goes with third and fourth receivers. Beasley has thrived under the same circumstances, but he doesn’t have the same game-breaking physical gifts that McKenzie possesses.