ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium:
1. In a game the Bills have no business losing, their only opponent is likely to be themselves.
It will be tempting to put forth something less than their best effort, to “play down to the level of the opponent,” so to speak. The Steelers are a bad team, period. They could very well be the weakest the Bills will face all season.
The onus is on Sean McDermott to keep his players keenly focused on avoiding any sort of letdown, especially after the emotional high of roaring back from a 17-point deficit to beat Baltimore last week and with the anticipation of next week’s game-of-the-year showdown at Kansas City. With enough self-inflicted wounds through a lack of concentration, any team, including the Bills, could lose a game it otherwise should win with ease.
2. With next week’s game bound to factor heavily in the Bills’ hopes of finally gaining home-field advantage in the postseason, you can’t help but believe some careful thought has gone into managing the lengthy list of injured players.
Though McDermott will always lean heavily on the guidance of the medical staff, it would make sense if, in some cases, he has chosen to err on the side of caution when it comes to holding some players out for Sunday to enhance their chances of being available to face the Chiefs.
This isn’t to say any of the five of the players who are listed as being out would necessarily be playing if Kansas City was Sunday’s opponent. But there is logic in making sure that a couple of key starters, such as safety Jordan Poyer (ribs) and tight end Dawson Knox (foot/hamstring), get an extra week of healing.
The same is true should the Bills decide to hold out any of the four players who are listed as questionable: linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring), receiver Isaiah McKenzie (concussion), defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) and defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (hamstring).
3. The Steelers’ shortcomings go beyond having a rookie quarterback, Kenny Pickett, make his first NFL start, though that’s largely why oddsmakers have made the Bills a two-touchdown favorite.
Pittsburgh’s defense, which suffered a major blow with the loss of star edge rusher T.J. Watt to a torn pectoral muscle, also is a factor in the club’s heavy underdog status. The Steelers rank 24th in the league in yards allowed, 24th against the run and 21st against the pass.
Despite the Bills’ rash of injuries on defense, their depth has held up exceptionally well and shouldn’t have any problem dealing with Pickett. Even if the rookie were to somehow perform at a shockingly high level, the inability of the Steelers’ defense to generate a consistently effective pass rush, along with its shoddy coverage, sets up another high-scoring day for an offense that shares the NFL lead in yards, ranks first in passing yards and second in scoring.
4. The Steelers’ decision to switch from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett this early feels like a knee-jerk move from a team that historically doesn’t operate that way.
This club has an institutional reputation for exceptional patience. It has long dealt with adversity by following the “stay-the-course” motto, reflected in the fact Mike Tomlin is only the Steelers’ third head coach in 53 years.
Tomlin hasn’t been one to do things out of sheer desperation or panic. But with his team floundering, largely because of problems on defense, he felt the best way to provide a spark was to make the inevitable quarterback change. That came in last week’s loss against the New York Jets.
With the Steelers’ investment of a first-round draft pick in Pickett, Trubisky was always going to be little more than a placeholder until Tomlin felt the former University of Pittsburgh star was ready to take over. The right time for that figured to be later in the season, as Pickett had more opportunity to watch and learn. After entering the game against the Jets, he did make some plays with his arm and legs, but also threw three interceptions.
5. Sunday would appear to be the worst possible time to give a rookie QB his shot.
Pickett will experience a full-throated sellout crowd that will make it extremely challenging for him to communicate with the rest of the Steelers’ offense. He’ll also see a variety of actual and disguised coverages and fronts as Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier seeks to confuse him with scheming that can get the better of far more experienced quarterbacks.
It’s fair to wonder whether Trubisky, who spent last season as Josh Allen’s backup, would be better equipped to handle facing his former team. But Frazier and McDermott no doubt have accounted for as much, realizing Trubisky is providing Pickett and Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Matt Canada with as much Bills knowledge as possible, or that Trubisky could enter the game at some point.
Additionally, Von Miller and the rest of the Bills’ pass rush will have Pickett under duress the entire game. Look for the rookie to make more turnovers, via interceptions and a fumble or two.