In the simplest terms, the only way the Bills make the playoffs is if they win their last two games at Oakland and New England, and only two of the other five teams in contention for the three remaining available berths reach 10 wins.
AFC North rivals Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore are all at nine wins, while AFC West rivals Kansas City and San Diego are at eight. If one of the teams from the North loses twice, and both the Chargers and Chiefs lose at least once, two wins by the Bills gets them in.
The Bengals host Denver, and close at Pittsburgh. It's every possible they could lose both and finish 9-6-1. The Steelers host the Chiefs and Bengals. It seems likely they win at least one, and get to 10 wins.
The Ravens are at Houston and host Cleveland. It's not asking much for Baltimore to split, or win both, so it would be at 10 or 11 victories.
The Chiefs are at Pittsburgh and host San Diego. A split is likely and that knocks them out, but if they sweep, they'd be at 10. And San Diego is at San Francisco and Kansas City. The Chargers winning both seems unlikely.
Bills coach Doug Marrone was asked Monday if he pays attention to any of this and he said, "I don't because it doesn't matter if you don't take care of your own business."
Here's a plausible scenario for the Bills, assuming they win their last two games: Hope the Steelers and Ravens win their games to qualify. That would mean Pittsburgh beats Kansas City and kills its hopes of reaching 10 wins, and it would mean one loss for the Bengals. Cincinnati then would have to lose to the Broncos this week in this scenario to remain stuck at nine wins. Beyond that, all it would take at this point would be one Chargers loss to end their hopes.
On the flip side, if the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals all win their games this week, the Bills are eliminated before they even get to New England for the finale.
Get it? Got it? Good.
-- In other news Monday, running back C.J. Spiller was medically cleared to play, so he will be added to the active roster this week. "You know, he's cleared, so I'm looking forward to seeing how he practices during the week," Marrone said. "I'd like to see more participation before we make that decision."
MAIORANA@DemocratandChronicle.com
