ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Miami Dolphins on Saturday night at Highmark Stadium:
1. Once again, weather is a major part of the storyline as the teams have their seasonal rematch.
Intense heat was widely viewed as a deciding factor of the Bills’ 21-19 loss at Hard Rock Stadium on Sept. 25. Never mind the dropped touchdown pass. Or the dropped pick-six. Or the pass that was skipped in front of a wide-open receiver in the end zone. Or the missed field goal. Or the botched field-goal opportunities before halftime and at the end of the game.
All that most Bills fans can remember about the game is how multiple players struggled with dehydration and other health issues caused by temperatures that neared 90 degrees at kickoff.
Now, their focus is on the snow and cold that they widely presume will greatly benefit the Bills Saturday night. Maybe it will. But it would be a large mistake for the team to feel the same way. Bills players aren’t any fonder of the snow and cold than those on the Dolphins or any other team.
The key for the Bills is no different than it is for the Dolphins. They must manage the field conditions, whether it is making sure they wear the proper cleats for better footing or employing an offensive game plan that, if necessary, incorporates as much running and power-oriented play as possible.
That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t lean on their strength, which is Josh Allen’s throwing arm. It means they need to have balance that will help Allen and the rest of the passing game take advantage of a defense that is forced to concentrate on stopping the run and leaving itself more vulnerable in the secondary.
2. The Bills’ Sept. 25 loss against the Dolphins was about Miami winning than it was about Buffalo finding a way to lose.
There were so many mistakes and such disjointed play that didn’t come close to resembling the dominance the Bills displayed through their previous two games that kicked off this season of Super Bowl dreams: a 31-10 victory against the Rams at Los Angeles and a 41-7 Monday night win against Tennessee at Highmark Stadium.
Maybe the Bills were due for a letdown, hot weather notwithstanding. And if weather was, in fact, as large a factor as many fans believe it’s also fair to wonder if the Bills did a good enough job of properly hydrating to handle the conditions.
With a win giving them a playoff berth, as well as the bitterness of the outcome when the teams previous met, the Bills should be highly motivated to play at their best. With the chance to put a strong grip on a third consecutive AFC East championship, their focus and execution should be as good as it could be, weather permitting.
3. Cole Beasley’s return is as clear a sign as any that the Bills believe their offense needs something to help it find the rhythm it has been lacking for a large chunk of the last half-dozen games or so.
During his previous time in Buffalo, Beasley provided a steady, dependable slot receiver. He showed good short-area quickness and a knack for separating from coverage and moving the chains. Most important, Josh Allen had tremendous trust in him, knowing he would be there either as a primary target or, especially, when other options weren’t available.
Increasingly, Allen has been struggling to find passing windows on short and intermediate routes, which require a quick release. His remarkable running skill often allows him to turn those situations into positive plays, but that isn’t what the Bills prefer because it exposes him to too much contact.
Whether Beasley, who retired after a brief stint with Tampa Bay earlier this season, can still make a noticeable impact remains to be seen. He seems to have gotten past the personality clashes within the team that made him uncomfortable, and he genuinely appears to be happy to be back.
The fact is, the Bills haven’t had anyone fill the slot role satisfactorily since Beasley’s departure. They thought they had the answer in free-agent signee Jamison Crowder, but he suffered a season-ending injury. Isaiah McKenzie hasn’t been a consistent answer there, either, though his speed and elusiveness allow him to contribute on gadget plays.
If Beasley can be what he was before his departure, or even close to it, that could go a long way for the Bills to consistently finding more of a rhythm to their passing game and offense in general.
4. Tua Tagovailoa and his speedy receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, didn’t do much damage during the previous meeting.
Tagovailoa threw for only 186 yards and a touchdown. Waddle finished with four receptions for 102 yards, while Hill had only two catches for 33 yards. Neither reached the end zone.
The Bills also limited the Dolphins to a mere 41 rushing yards and 2.4 yards per carry.
The Dolphins have lost their last two games, and don’t have the look of the team that once was putting heavy pressure on the Bills after winning five in a row. The Bills’ defense is playing well and capable of again keeping the Dolphins’ offense in check and forcing turnovers.
5. The Bills have a chance to not only take command of the AFC East with their third win in a row, all against division opponents, but also build some true momentum to take them into the postseason.
The three games that follow Saturday night’s are at Chicago on Christmas Eve, at Cincinnati on Monday Night Football, and then at home against the Patriots.
Cincinnati is the most daunting of all the teams left on the Bills’ schedule and the one that could offer the most serious challenge in their quest to reach the Super Bowl. But if the Bills can do the expected and win Saturday night and against the Bears, they would carry a six-game winning streak into Cincinnati.
At that point, we will see what the math says regarding playoff seeding, but regardless of the outcome it’s hard to think the Bills wouldn’t be rolling into the postseason with a strong head of steam. The Bills don’t need the top seed to reach the Super Bowl.
They are good enough to win any playoff game, regardless of location.