ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Picking at or near the bottom of each round in the NFL draft is reflective of a team’s strong performance during the previous season. For that reason, the Buffalo Bills are entitled to wear their ownership of the 27th choice as a badge of honor.
But there’s a significant catch when it comes to this year’s draft, which begins Thursday night and runs through Saturday.
“It’s a tough draft to evaluate,” longtime ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. told reporters recently.
By “tough,” Kiper didn’t mean there are too many superb prospects from which to choose. He was referencing the widely held view in NFL circles that there’s generally a dearth of high-end talent available this year and that the 2024 draft will be much better.
For the Bills, the dilemma looms larger than what one would normally expect from one of the league’s upper-tier teams. That’s because, with minimal salary cap room this year and beyond and less-than-spectacular production from recent drafts, they desperately need to hit on most of their picks.
While addressing reporters, General Manager Brandon Beane pointed out an obvious problem for the Bills: “We’re dealing with the ramifications of paying a quarterback at a top level.” He was talking about the $258 million contract extension the Bills gave Josh Allen in 2021. Even with that and other higher-end deals having been restructured to create cap space, the Bills still found themselves unable to make splash moves in free agency. That probably will be the case next year and even the year after that.
Finding immediate starters and significant contributors with the picks they make this week likely is the Bills' best hope to at least remain a playoff contender in a year when the competition within the AFC East and the rest of the conference looks to have gotten more difficult.
Coach Sean McDermott is aboard with that thinking, telling reporters that drafting well is “huge” and developing the players the Bills select so they produce is “an important piece of sustaining success.”
This year, that could be a huge ask for Beane, McDermott and their respective staffs. “If, three years from now, you get an A or a B-plus grade, you should give your scouts a raise, because this is a draft where you have to earn your money,” Kiper said.
No one at One Bills Drive wants to ponder the alternative, because it could very well mean the Super Bowl window that seemed so wide open before last season will have shrunk dramatically.
The solution, if there is one, might very well not include a first-round pick. When a draft is considered weak, teams with lower picks tend to look to trade down, avoiding the risk of over-drafting a player they don’t believe is worthy of first-round status while acquiring extra choices to help increase their chances of finding impact rookies.
Beane has acknowledged that if the Bills do make a first-round trade, it would more likely be to move down rather than up. However, with increased potential for other teams seeking downward movement, it could be difficult to pull off and the Bills would be forced to stay put.
The other part of the Bills’ challenge is they have a long list of holes to fill. They could use help on their offensive and defensive lines. They could use help in their secondary. They could use a middle linebacker to replace Tremaine Edmunds, who left for Chicago in free agency.
Of course, there’s the clamoring for a wide receiver and a running back for those who believe, despite the fact defense has consistently caused the Bills’ undoing in the postseason, more offense is the secret sauce.
The bottom line is that every position outside of quarterback is in play for a team many had expected to hoist the Lombardi Trophy last February.
Should the Bills remain at No. 27, here are some names, listed alphabetically, to keep in mind (some of these players could also be available in later rounds):
- Jordan Addison, WR, USC.
- Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland.
- Brian Branch, DB, Alabama.
- Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson.
- Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa.
- Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina.
- Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama.
- Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma.
- Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia.
- Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah.
- Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas.
- Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas.
- Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina.
- Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia.
- O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida.
- Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa.
- Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech.
- Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee.