ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — The AFC suddenly looks a lot more competitive than it did a couple of weeks ago.
The conversation still is highlighted by the 4-2 Buffalo Bills being at or near the top of the division and the NFL because of their prolific scoring and smothering defense. But it does include other teams that merit similar consideration.
One is the 5-2 Tennessee Titans, who followed a last-second victory against the Bills with a dominant win against the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday after a short week of preparation. Another is the 5-2 Cincinnati Bengals, who pulled off the rare feat of humiliating the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens at home in Week 7.
The 5-2 Las Vegas Raiders and 4-2 Los Angeles Chargers also belong in this group, as do the 4-3 Cleveland Browns. It probably isn’t wise to sleep on the 3-4 Chiefs, though it’s impossible to ignore the fade route they’ve been running out of the postseason picture. The 3-3 Pittsburgh Steelers? Feel free to at least nap on them... while keeping one eye open.
Add it all up and you have the primary reason the Bills must take advantage of the gift that league schedule-makers have given them for the next four weeks. It opens Sunday, when they face the 1-6 Miami Dolphins.
To borrow a term from Aaron Rodgers – used in connection with his Green Bay Packers’ repeated success against the Chicago Bears – the Bills do “own” the Dolphins, having beaten them six times in a row. They’ve scored 30-plus points in all of those victories, including a 35-0 win in Week 2 at Miami. Since 2020, the Bills have averaged 40.7 points per game in going 3-0 against the Dolphins. Buffalo outscored Miami, 122-54, in that stretch.
And consider these extreme contrasts:
- The Bills’ defense ranks in the top two in the NFL in points per game and yards per game allowed, while the Dolphins’ offense ranks in the bottom five in the league in points per game and yards per game this season.
- The Bills’ offense ranks second in scoring in the NFL, while the Dolphins’ defense is the second-worst in the league.
- In seven career games against Miami, Josh Allen is 6-1, with a 108.1 passer rating. He’s the only player in league history with a 100-plus career passer rating and 200-plus career pass attempts against the Dolphins.
When it comes to facing Allen, the Dolphins, as with most teams, face a conundrum. What’s the best way to cover his array of talented receivers? Zone or man? How much of each should they play?
“If you just pop on the film, he’s playing very comfortable,” linebacker Jerome Baker told reporters. “We’ve got to switch it up on him.”
As cornerback Xavien Howard pointed out to reporters about playing man-to-man against Allen, “A scrambling quarterback, it makes a job even harder knowing you got to stay on your guy and, with the scrambling, you can’t look in the backfield. That’s really just like backyard football.”
The Bills are 4-0 against teams with a losing record this season. After the Dolphins, the Bills face the 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars, the 1-5 New York Jets and even the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts.
This is a chance for the Bills to get the momentum necessary to run away and hide with the AFC East championship. If they can get on a four-game winning streak, which is conceivable, they would find themselves in driver’s seat to wrap up the division title not long after Thanksgiving, when they face the New Orleans Saints.
After that game, the lone opponent that would figure to pose the greatest challenge is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are looking as if they have a legitimate chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
The final four teams on the Bills’ schedule are the 3-4 Carolina Panthers, the 3-4 New England Patriots, the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons and the Jets.
