ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ home-opener against the Las Vegas Raiders Sunday at Highmark Stadium:
1. Josh Allen looked every bit like a quarterback in crisis against the New York Jets Monday night.
He knows it. His teammates know it. His coaches know it. Anyone paying even the slightest attention to the Bills knows it.
Assuming he’ll bounce back from his four-turnover disaster would be easier had Allen not looked so ordinary/mediocre/poor through the second half of last season and especially in the playoffs. His 32 interceptions since 2021 are the most in the NFL, and he also leads the league with 84 giveaways since his rookie season in 2018. What he showed Monday night can fairly be seen as more of a trend than an aberration.
Still, Allen does have a history of rebounding and will undoubtedly correct and, at times, likely try to over correct all or most of what went wrong against the Jets. Expect to see a version of him who will come out with a greater sense of focus and calm, even under the roar of a home-opening crowd that will be doing its part to help the Bills’ cause.
The second game of the season is hardly a make-or-break point for a player, especially one in whom the Bills have invested the bulk of their lingering Super Bowl hopes. However, the scrutiny of Allen’s game has never been greater. His terrible decision-making and reckless running against the Jets raised the largest questions yet about the state of his game, which has drawn increased second-guessing since the middle of last season.
We are past the point of saying Allen must become more mature. We are past the point of admiring the way he scolds himself in front of cameras and microphones. We are past the point of feeling all warm and fuzzy when Stefon Diggs and other teammates show him support and encouragement between blunders.
Two poor performances by Allen will lead to justified panic. That, alone, should be enough incentive for him and the team to right the ship immediately.
2. Oddsmakers see this as a comfortable Bills victory, and that makes sense.
Despite their 1-0 record and the Bills’ 0-1 mark, the Raiders aren’t the better team. Not by a long a long shot. They don’t have anything approaching the ultra-talented defense the Bills just faced. They’ve allowed 26.5 points per game since 2020, which is third-most in the NFL. With game-managing Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, their offense doesn’t have the firepower the Bills can display when Allen is playing the way his talent says he should play on a regular basis.
The Raiders’ best formula for success would be for their coach, Josh McDaniels, to go back to the game plan he used as offensive coordinator of the Patriots in their 14-10 victory on Dec. 6, 2021, at Highmark. On a windy Monday night, Pats quarterback Mac Jones attempted only three passes, completing two. McDaniels’ game plan was to run the ball, which New England did to the tune of 222 yards and a touchdown and keep the Bills’ offense on the sidelines. The objective was to feed Allen’s impatience and set the table for him to force plays and make mistakes. It worked.
The Raiders have a solid running back in Josh Jacobs, though he ran for only 48 yards in last Sunday’s win against Denver. The Bills’ run defense was vulnerable against the Jets, but some of that was due to Sean McDermott’s insistence on staying in nickel defense against two- and three-tight-end formations. The Bills need to match big blockers with big defenders.
3. The Bills must find a consistent running game and stick with it.
They have the ingredients of an effective ground attack. They just need to stick with it and allow it to establish some rhythm.
That should be easier to do against the Raiders’ defensive front than it was against the Jets, who easily have the deepest group of D-linemen in the league. James Cook is capable of averaging far more than 3.8 yards per carry. Damien Harris and Latavius Murray should also be able to bring more balance to the Bills’ run game and wear down the Raiders’ defenders. The offensive line has to do a better job in all facets, but being more physical in drive-blocking is one that was supposed to result from the changes made at guard.
The Bills also had two or more tight ends on the field an NFL-high 70.6% of the time Monday night. The league average before Thursday night’s Minnesota-Philadelphia game was 27.8%. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey should be able to get more rushing production out of those formations.
4. The Bills must find a second receiver who can make a meaningful contribution.
Stefon Diggs did precisely what a top-level pass-catcher should do with his 10-catch, 102-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Jets. After that, however, the Bills had no one else making an impact in the passing game. That must change if the team is to have sustained success, particularly against higher-caliber opponents.
Part of it is on Allen to stop being so obsessed with putting the ball in the hands of his No. 1 target that he does so to the point of forcing throws into harm’s way. Part of it is on Ken Dorsey, who needs to devise ways to help get Gabe Davis and his tight ends open and able to make plays.
Drawing the defense away from Diggs will also put him in a better position to make more difference-making receptions.
5. It’s hard to dismiss this as being “only” the second game and saying the outcome won’t be pivotal to the rest of the season.
Even if that’s true, it feels as if the Bills are in a more urgent place. A road loss against the Jets would have been more tolerable if: a. Aaron Rodgers had not exited the game after only his fourth play and, b. Allen hadn’t looked so awful.
The ugliness of that game remains fresh and is caught in the collective throat of the team and its fans. Any win Sunday will help ease the sting, but only a convincing one will ease the doubts about Allen and the validity of the Bills’ status as a Super Bowl contender.