ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Washington Commanders Sunday at FedEx Field:
1. It’s never safe to assume an NFL team will necessarily look the same from one game to the next.
There are far too many variables, ranging from health to the quality of the opponent to collective and individual matchups to the weather. Game plans change, as they should for all the reasons mentioned and then some.
But a big question regarding the Bills is will the nicely balanced and virtually flawless offensive scheme they employed in last Sunday’s 38-10 victory against the Las Vegas Raiders show up against the Commanders and all or most of Buffalo’s future opponents? Did we see any sort of template for how the Bills’ offense will function from here on out?
What the Bills showed last Sunday delighted their fans, not to mention coach Sean McDermott, in ways that went beyond the final score. This was an about-face from the abomination that was their season-opening loss against the New York Jets. Josh Allen went from the wide-eyed, reckless turnover machine that gave the Jets the ball four times to a much more poised and focused leader that methodically moved the offense up and down the field. Rather than constantly seeking the big play to the point of forcing throws that never should have left his hand, he smartly distributed higher-percentage short and intermediate passes to nine different receivers.
Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey also deserved credit for a well-conceived plan that incorporated the running game and consistently exploited weaknesses in the Raiders’ defense. The Bills were always a step ahead offensively and it seemed that once they seized control of the game, they were never going to let it go.
Though there are aspects of the Commanders’ D that the Bills might choose to attack differently than what they did last Sunday, it’s fair to think that they’ll at least be inclined to try to follow a similar approach. Allen is a better quarterback when he is relaxed and allows the game to come to him rather than insisting on assuming the bulk of the offensive load.
His hefty contract doesn’t require him to do more than provide the team with its best chance for victory each week. Regardless of the game plan, he needs to remind himself of that. And when it comes to the game plan and play-calling, Dorsey has the same responsibility.
The Bills are the superior team in this game, which is generally going to be the case each week. If Allen and everyone around him stay within themselves, they will likely come out with another lopsided win.
2. The Commanders have a highly talented defensive line, with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne inside, and edge rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat, but the Bills’ offensive line demonstrated last Sunday it can provide sufficient pass protection and open big holes for the run.
If the Bills continue to make use of a wide range of pass-catchers, with Allen getting the ball out of his hand quickly and precisely, the Commanders’ pass rush will largely be nullified. The same will be true if the Bills again stay committed to their run game and allow James Cook to be as important to the success of the game plan as Allen.
Another factor that should help keep the Commanders’ defensive front honest is Allen’s ability to run when they intensify pressure and have man coverage on the back end. Look for one of the NFL’s most dynamic running quarterbacks to have several opportunities to gain big chunks of yardage with his legs.
3. The Commanders are 2-0 for the first time since 2011 and can thank their defense for playing a big role in that. But it’s a defense that lives dangerously, relying more on takeaways than the ability to stop the opposition.
The Commanders have forced two turnovers in each victory, 20-16 at home against the lowly Arizona Cardinals and 35-33 last Sunday at Denver.
Against the Broncos, Washington allowed touchdown drives of 61, 75 and 90 yards before linebacker Jamin Davis forced a strip sack of quarterback Russell Wilson to spark a comeback. Though the Commanders managed to hang on for the win, that formula isn’t likely to work against a better QB in Allen and a more talented opponent overall in the Bills.
4. Despite Sam Howell’s impressive showing against the Broncos last Sunday and the fact he’s the first Washington QB to win his first three career starts since at least 1950, the Bills have no business losing to a quarterback making only his fourth NFL start.
Howell is still finding his way. Even the Commanders have no idea if he’s their long-term answer, but he’s the best they have for now.
After struggling in the season-opener against the Cardinals, Howell threw for 299 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Denver. He also had the help of a solid ground game, with Brian Robinson Jr., rushing for 87 yards and two TDs.
The Bills’ defense can’t allow Howell’s confidence, which has gotten a boost from sound play-calling by new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, to grow. It must stonewall the Commanders’ rushing attack as it did the Raiders’ last Sunday and follow up with the same relentless pass rush that it unleashed on Jimmy Garoppolo. Howell has been sacked 10 times in two games. Buffalo’s secondary also must hold up against a dangerous receiving corps led by Terry McLaurin.
5. It’s noteworthy that Sean McDermott is reaching a milestone Sunday by coaching his 100th regular-season game.
It speaks loudly to the stability he and General Manager Brandon Beane have brought to the leadership of the Bills after years of the extreme opposite. Terry Pegula recognized as much by giving both contract extensions that run through 2027.
McDermott’s steady hand has played as much a part in the Bills’ status as a Super Bowl contender as any other part of the team, including Josh Allen. His ability to guide the team through the turbulence of the 2022 season did plenty to reinforce the trust most Bills players have in him, even with the bitterly disappointing playoff loss against Cincinnati.
McDermott’s role in repeated postseason failures can’t be ignored, but he still ranks among the top coaches in the NFL and his 63-36 record gives him a franchise-best winning percentage of .636. That’s better than Hall of Famer Marv Levy (.615) and Wade Phillips (.604).
McDermott’s decision to take on the added role of defensive coordinator this season will continue to be something to watch closely, as defensive shortcomings have done the most to keep the Bills from reaching the Super Bowl. His aggressive style showed up against the Raiders.
Now, we’ll see how often it surfaces the rest of the way.