ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium:
1. This has all the makings of a classic showdown between desperate teams with a recent history of being the unquestioned class of the AFC.
Saying there will be a playoff-like atmosphere is hardly an overstatement, because it will have a distinct win-or-else feel. A loss would drop the Bills to 6-7 and do considerable damage to their hopes of reaching the playoffs. It also would add fuel to the bitter disappointment of a club that has fallen far short of expectations. Though the Chiefs are 8-4, they, too, could have their postseason aspirations compromised by what would be a third defeat in their last four games and fourth in their last six. They, too, would face increased criticism for underachievement.
The Bills-Chiefs series has provided some unforgettable moments (bad and good) for Buffalo fans. The good has come from the Bills’ ability to win at Kansas City in the regular season. The bad is losing there twice in the playoffs.
Besides the stakes, the other element that makes this matchup so compelling is that it’s headlined by two of the game’s best quarterbacks: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has a 3-2 edge head-to-head, including playoffs. Individual statistics notwithstanding, neither has been as consistently dynamic this season as was the case in previous meetings.
However, the ability of each to take over a game and do spectacular things throwing and running creates as heightened a level of anticipation as any game on the 2023 NFL schedule.
2. It’s safe to say Josh Allen and Joe Brady have developed an instant chemistry as quarterback-offensive coordinator and, as a result, the Bills’ offense is back to being, well, the Bills’ offense. That is, an offense that’s explosive and strikes quickly and frequently from anywhere on the field.
Sixty-six points 898 yards in the last two games are substantive proof the Bills have found the groove that had been missing during the six games following their 48-20 pounding of the Miami Dolphins on Oct. 1.
Allen seems to have recaptured whatever confidence was seemingly lost as the Bills struggled to move the ball and score against lesser opponents. He’s making excellent use of his targets and, while he’s more willing to pull the ball down and run, he’s doing so more judiciously. Yes, he still throws troubling interceptions, but he isn’t taking nearly as many risks with his throws and is also more mindful of reducing collisions that are threats to his remaining in one piece. In short, Allen is doing a lot without trying to do too much.
Credit Brady for finding ways, through game-planning and play-calling, to help put Allen in the best position to succeed. It’s fair to say Brady, while not overhauling the Bills’ playbook, is seeing things through a different lens than his predecessor, Ken Dorsey. Brady also seems to be a bit more of a calming influence on Allen.
The Bills’ offense will face an enormous challenge from a Chiefs defense that has allowed an average of 17.3 points per game. That ranks third in the NFL and is the fewest with Andy Reid as KC’s coach. The Chiefs did allow a season-high 27 points in last week’s loss at Green Bay.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo does a masterful job of putting together pressure packages and disguising coverages. He’ll no doubt devise a game plan that will focus on tapping into Allen’s turnover-prone tendencies (the QB is second in the NFL in giveaways and interceptions with 16 and 13, respectively). The din from one of the noisiest crowds in the league could help that cause.
3. The Chiefs look far more vulnerable than one would expect from the defending Super Bowl champs. And that vulnerability begins with their passing game.
This factoid says it all: For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs’ scoring defense ranks higher than their scoring offense (third compared to 11th) and their total defense ranks higher than their total offense (fourth compared to eighth).
The Chiefs’ offense isn’t functioning with the signature precision or explosiveness that were the main reasons the team has won two Super Bowls in the past four seasons. Mahomes isn’t getting much help from receivers not named Travis Kelce. Mahomes’ targeted receivers have dropped 21 passes, three more than those of any other NFL quarterback’s targeted passes this year. Opponents have done a good job of devoting extra attention to Kelce while taking their chances with Kansas City’s other pass-catchers.
Look for the Bills to do the same, meaning Jordan Poyer, Taylor Rapp and Terrel Bernard need to be at their very best on Kelce’s short and intermediate routes. Buffalo’s defense also must excel at getting Mahomes and his receivers on the ground with the ball to minimize their gains.
4. These have not been the best two weeks for Sean McDermott or Von Miller.
McDermott found himself blindsided by a firestorm when a story posted online this week by independent journalist Tyler Dunne revealed that the coach had used the 9/11 terrorists as the basis of what was intended to be a speech to his players stressing the importance of communication at the start of the Bills’ 2019 training camp.
Though separate reporting by Tim Graham of The Athletic said the speech was well known for four years within the confines of One Bills Drive and would not threaten McDermott’s job security, McDermott felt compelled to address it during an unscheduled press briefing Thursday. An emotional McDermott offered an explanation of his thinking behind the speech and said he regathered the team before practice that day to clarify his remarks. McDermott also said he would do the same with the current squad Thursday.
Chalk this up to a terrible mistake by McDermott, but I don’t see any reason he should be crucified for it. My sense is that those who aren’t happy with the coaching he has done are adding it to a pile of reasons McDermott should be in danger of being fired after the season, assuming the Bills either miss the playoffs or don’t make a deep postseason run. That is a silly stance and I highly doubt it would play any factor if Terry Pegula felt the need to take a hard look at McDermott’s worthiness to remain head coach.
I also doubt the story will serve as any sort of distraction before the biggest game of the season. True, McDermott has devoted more time to reacting to it than I think is necessary, including his response to a question about it Friday, but the players are likely far more concerned with the enormity of Sunday’s game.
Additionally, the current roster, most of which was not around for the awkward speech, has every reason to view McDermott as a strong leader. After all, he has not only guided them to three consecutive AFC East titles and five playoff appearances since taking over the helm in 2017, he also was the rock they desperately needed during the horrifying moments when Damar Hamlin’s heart temporarily stopped beating on the field last January.
I don’t feel the squad is any more distracted by the situation involving Miller, who was arrested in Dallas during the Bills’ bye last week after being accused of assaulting his longtime girlfriend. The Bills’ hierarchy has been criticized for not taking any action with Miller and allowing him to be available to play Sunday. General Manager Brandon Beane said the team is following the league’s lead in terms of any possible discipline, which seems unlikely to happen through the balance of the season.
I acknowledge that the arrest and the police report and 911 call from the victim paint an ugly picture. I also acknowledge that, unless the NFL chooses to suspend or place Miller on the commissioner’s exempt list, he will remain, at least for the time being, an employee of the Bills. Stay tuned for what might occur after the season, especially given Miller’s minimal impact on the field.
5. There’s legitimate reason to believe a win Sunday could be the start of the Bills running the table all the way into the playoffs.
The Chiefs are beatable, especially while missing four starters: running back Isiah Pacheco, offensive tackle Donovan Smith, middle linebacker Drew Tranquill and defensive back Donovan Smith. Of course, neither the Bills nor their fans feel sympathy for another team’s injury issues, given the many with which their team has dealt this season. However, the Bills appear to be the healthier team. McDermott also has a 6-0 post-bye record, though all those wins have come at home.
After the Chiefs, the Bills face a strong Dallas Cowboys team at Highmark Stadium. It is another game the Bills are more than capable of winning, considering the fact the Cowboys have had a fairly soft schedule on the way to 9-3. Their toughest game to date will come Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles, against whom they lost earlier this season.
After that, the Bills face two weaker opponents, the Chargers and Patriots, before traveling to Miami. A minimum of four victories, with one coming against the Dolphins, would seem to be enough to get the Bills a wild-card spot.