ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium:
1. This has great potential to be a trap game.
The Colts are struggling. They’re 4-5 and have lost their last two games.
The Bills are rolling. They’re 7-2, have won four games in a row, have a 99% (according to NFL Next Gen Stats) of reaching the playoffs and their next game after Sunday is against the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo’s four-game lead over the 3-6 New York Jets in the AFC East is the largest margin between first and second place among all divisions entering Week 10.
Add this to a growing list of circumstances that have tested the Bills’ resilience. Since the start of the season, the team has dealt with a rash of injuries. The latest area to be hit hard is wide receiver.
There’s reason to believe the Bills enter Sunday’s game with greater attention on overcoming the challenges of being without emerging rookie receiver Keon Coleman, who could be sidelined for multiple games with a wrist injury, and veteran newcomer Amari Cooper, who is questionable also with a wrist injury, as well as the injuries to fullback Reggie Gilliam (hip, questionable) and linebacker Baylon Spector (calf, questionable) than on the inferiority of the Colts.
The Bills’ 30-27 last-second victory against the 2-6 Miami Dolphins last Sunday is a perfect example of that mentality.
“I think we’ve got a very resilient football team very tough football team and a tough-minded team,” Sean McDermott said. “So I think you find out about your football team. You find out about the character of your football team, the toughness of your football team. Last week we didn’t have our best game and we found a way to win. And I think that also speaks volumes about our football team. Like I said, after the game with a lot to work on.”
There’s also the fact the Colts are only the fourth team in NFL history to have each of their first nine games decided by one possession. The others are the 2019 Colts, the 2016 Detroit Lions, and the 2015 Baltimore Ravens.
“You look at every game that they’ve played, they’ve been in every single one,” Josh Allen said. “And I think that’s due in large in part to their defense, creating some takeaways and forcing field goals and not touchdowns down there in the red zone. So it’s a really good unit.”
2. The Bills’ porous run defense will be tested. Again.
The Colts’ best path to victory is to pound the football with Jonathan Taylor, one of the NFL’s better running backs, and control the tempo and the clock.
Taylor had only 48 rushing yards, matching his season low, in the Colts’ 21-13 loss against Minnesota last Sunday. The Vikings’ defense sold out to eliminate Taylor’s impact, while mainly using blitzes to pressure quarterback Joe Flacco.
The Bills’ defensive philosophy is rely heavily on the defensive line to stuff the run, a formula that hasn’t worked so well this season, and put heat on the QB. After watching Miami’s De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert run for 63 and 56 yards, respectively, last week while averaging 5.3 and 5.6 yards, respectively, General Manager Brandon Beane sought some big-bodied help for the middle of Buffalo’s defense.
The result was the return of a pair of tackles with previous stints with the Bills: Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson.
“As it relates to giving up the running yards we gave up last week or adding players for the future here, it’s all about trying to make our team better as much as we can,” McDermott said. “These two guys haven't played a lot this year and so we get them in here and see what type of football shape they’re in, and how they fit into where we’re trying to go with our team moving forward.”
3. In the short term, as in Sunday’s game, the Bills’ injuries at wide receiver should not be a major problem.
The Colts don’t figure to pose enough of a challenge to take advantage of whatever the Bills’ passing game might be missing without Coleman and, potentially, without Cooper.
Long-term — as in three of the next four games that are against Kansas City, San Francisco, and Detroit — is a different story.
Just as he did last Sunday, Josh Allen will need to use the extent of his considerable talent to elevate the level of his remaining pass-catchers.
“Throughout the course of the season, that’s going to happen, that’s the name of the game,” Allen said of the receiver injuries. “It’s not if you get hurt, it’s when you get hurt, right? So just dealing with, you know, whether we have new guys or, you know, we got to get them moving around a little bit (as was the case in Wednesday’s practice). That was good to see. So the jury’s still out, and, again, we rock with who we got. We do a good job in our offensive unit meetings and getting guys ready to go, so whatever the case is, we’ll be prepared.”
4. The Bills’ clearest path to victory is pressuring the daylights out of Joe Flacco.
Flacco is 39 and as immobile as any quarterback in the league. He became the Colts’ starter after struggling second-year man Anthony Richardson was benched.
Last Sunday, The Vikings unleashed heavy blitzing on Flacco that resulted on three sacks, seven quarterback hits and general discomfort in the pocket. He completed only 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards, and had an interception. Flacco also lost a fumble.
The Bills might be tempted to employ a similar approach, though it is one from which McDermott has gotten away since his blitz-heavy days as a defensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles.
“I believe pressure always starts with the front four,” McDermott said. “To just blitz irresponsibly is, in some ways, irresponsible at times. … All in all though, in order to do that, you have to have the complement of the four-man rush and I think that’s where we want to continue to put all of ours in that basket to start off and say, ‘Hey, how good is our four-man rush?’ And I think at times it’s been really good and I think at other times it can be better.”
5. After Sunday, the Bills’ season will begin to be defined in a big way.
Sure, they’re a virtual lock to reach the postseason. But beating the Colts isn’t going to prove all that much.
The stronger evidence of the Bills’ worthiness as a Super Bowl contender will come from what they do against the Chiefs, 49ers and Lions.