ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. —
The Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl window remains open, of course. As long as Josh Allen is their quarterback, they’ll be regarded as a legitimate contender.
However, the window isn’t nearly as large as it was entering the 2022 season.
How can it be?
The version of the Bills that kicked off the ’22 campaign with that pummeling of the defending Super Bowl-champion Los Angeles Rams in September was very different than the one that embarrassed itself in last Sunday’s divisional-round playoff loss against the Cincinnati Bengals.
This comes down to simple math.
Before kickoff of the Rams game, the Bills were mostly seen as a team that had the ingredients to go the distance. Their 2021 performance, especially by Allen and the rest of the offense, largely fueled that perspective. So, too, did the addition of Von Miller. It added up to a reasonably clear path to Arizona.
Things are much different in the aftermath of last Sunday’s disaster at Highmark Stadium. There are far too many areas the Bills must address to realistically believe they’ll make all of the necessary repairs in a single offseason. The NFL doesn’t work that way, particularly for a team that almost certainly will have to perform some significant salary cap purging.
It could very well be that things could get worse before they get better.
And make no mistake. This is a team needs plenty of improvement.
The 27-10 loss against Cincinnati magnified flaws in the Bills that were visible before the game but harder to see in the midst of the eight-game winning streak they carried into the game. The list goes as follows:
Offensive tackle
Spencer Brown is over his head as an NFL starter. His small-college roots haven’t done him any favors, but the larger issue is his lack of development as a pro. The Bills are in serious need of at least one new tackle to serve as an upgrade over Brown on the right side.
Yet, it’s also fair to say that Dion Dawkins didn’t distinguish himself as the established fixture the Bills want him to be on the left side. He often struggled in one-on-one matchups in pass protection and seemed to show less strength and mobility as the season progressed.
Offensive guard
This needs to get better, even if it’s a matter of replacing one of the starters. There was little, if any, push from the interior of the line on run plays.
Running back
James Cook shows promise, but the Bills need much more in the mix. Devin Singletary is solid, but he isn’t dynamic and could depart via free agency. Think of what Joe Mixon did last Sunday. The Bills have no one like that.
Wide receiver
Someone other than Stefon Diggs must be a consistent game-breaking threat. Gabe Davis showed signs of being that guy before running a fade route. Think of what Ja’Marr Chase AND Tee Higgins did last Sunday. The Bills do not have that combination. They don’t have the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle combo in Miami, either.
Keeping Cole Beasley to fill the slot role makes sense, but it doesn’t make up for the absence of another Diggs-level target. And knowing that you’re only going to go as far as Allen takes you, you’d better find one.
Defensive line
I love Von Miller’s ever-present optimism. He did a nice job of painting a bright picture about his return next season from the torn ACL that ended his season on Thanksgiving. Heck, he was trying to convince people he’d be back in action soon after suffering the injury against Detroit.
But the reality is that Miller is 34 and this isn’t his first ACL issue. The reality is that he could very well miss upwards of half of the ’23 season, if not more. The reality is that the rest of the defensive line didn’t generate the reasonably strong pressure minus Miller that it did with him in the lineup.
The Bills’ inability to make Joe Burrow even slightly uncomfortable last Sunday, while facing three backup offensive linemen, was inexcusable.
Linebacker
The Bills have got to get free-agent-to-be Tremaine Edmunds signed to a new deal. Period. Given their cap issues, it doesn’t figure to be easy. They have another of the league’s best linebackers in Matt Milano, but they could use some depth here.
Safety
Much of what went south for the defense stemmed from the neck injury that sidelined Micah Hyde for most of the year. He said he’d have been able to play if the Bills reached the AFC Championship Game. How well he would have been able to perform is anyone’s guess. Hyde also isn’t getting any younger, and the extremely serious nature of his injury can’t be ignored going forward.
Jordan Poyer is likely on his way out, hitting the open market. That doesn’t leave much, either in the way of starters or backups, to pick up the slack. The Bills’ firing of safeties coach Jim Salgado Thursday is somewhat curious. The secondary didn’t perform well as a whole, though how much of that should fall on Salgado’s shoulders is, at least at first blush, debatable.
Cornerback
Tre’Davious White is not the same player he was before suffering a torn ACL on Thanksgiving 2022. He never looked truly comfortable and struggled mightily against high-end receivers. Whether his issue is more mental than physical is anyone’s guess, but it’s a concern.
Kaiir Elam had his moments as a rookie, but the Bills can’t believe they are set at a position at which they repeatedly were scorched.
Here are a couple of other points to consider regarding the shrinking of the Bills’ Super Bowl window:
Coaching
Sean McDermott has made one change, though hardly a big one. Could more follow? Maybe. If he stands pat with the rest of the staff, he’s going to have to have some deep discussions with his coordinators.
Ken Dorsey, on offense, has to explain why he had zero answers from the fire zones and other forms of pressure he brought that had Allen under constant siege last Sunday. Allen seemed oblivious to the defensive back whose intentions to come after him were obvious before the snap. Those situations demand that the quarterback not only be aware of it but also to communicate to a receiver that a sight-adjustment route was required so that Allen could get the ball out quickly.
Leslie Frazier has been widely seen as meriting a second chance to be a head coach, though he so far hasn’t gotten any feelers in this hiring cycle. That said, Frazier is well aware of the accountability resulting from the absence of pressure on Burrow, whether from the defensive line or manufactured through creative blitzing.
Salgado is paying at least the initial price for the issues on the back end of the defense, but Frazier has some fixing to do there as well.
Also, there is no ignoring that the Bills’ coaching has fallen short in three consecutive postseason appearances.
Competition
Kansas City once was seen as the biggest obstacle between the Bills and the Super Bowl. That’s no longer the case. The Bengals are every bit as much of a hurdle for the Bills to clear.
And the Bengals and Chiefs, who square off for the AFC title Sunday, aren’t going anywhere. They arguably have the two best quarterbacks in the NFL in Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. They have dynamic talent surrounding those QBs. They have superb coaching.
It’s fair to stay that if the Bills are, in fact, one of the top contenders in the AFC, they are behind Cincinnati and KC.
And, oh by the way, the competition in the conference could become much better with a rising QB star in Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, the highly talented Justin Herbert of the Chargers, the possibility that old Bills nemesis Tom Brady ends up with the Raiders, the possibility that Mac Jones improves with the help of an actual offensive coordinator in New England, Bill O’Brien ... and ... and ... could Aaron Rodgers end up with the New York Jets, who hired his favorite OC, Nathaniel Hackett, Thursday?