ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night at Paycor Stadium:
1. The stage is set for as big a game as any in the NFL this season and arguably the most anticipated Monday Night Football matchup in many years.
The Bills (12-3) and Bengals (11-4), along with the Kansas City Chiefs (13-3), are in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC playoffs. They’re here primarily because of their elite quarterbacks and dynamic pass-catchers. That sets up a close, competitive contest that likely will be decided in the final seconds.
The Chiefs’ win against Denver Sunday means the Bills need to beat Cincinnati to maintain the head-to-head edge they have over Kansas City, while also putting the No. 1 seed out of the Bengals’ grasp.
The Bills and Bengals are comfortable with so much on the line. The Bills are in their third consecutive season as a serious Super Bowl contender. The Bengals played in the Super Bowl last February.
Neither club makes a habit of blinking first.
2. Could there be a more ideal situation for Josh Allen to put the team on his shoulders and carry it to victory?
You have a classic quarterbacking duel, with Allen and his counterpart, Joe Burrow, well aware the outcome will depend on which quarterback performs best. Expect both to generate strong passing numbers, but Allen should have an edge with his ability to make difference-making plays with his legs and throws on the run.
Burrow wasn’t merely being overly kind to an opponent when he told reporters, “Everybody who watches Josh, there’s no secrets about why he's so good. He’s fun to watch, runs around, makes plays, makes throws nobody else can make. He’s just an exciting player.”
Stefon Diggs is long overdue to have a monster game. He tends to elevate his performance in prime time. There will be times when Allen will struggle to find open targets or Ken Dorsey will call his number on designated runs, and Allen should be able to deliver as he regularly has in high-profile circumstances.
3. The Bills’ secondary will face its greatest test to date against Joe Burrow.
Burrow is a highly talented passer whose strengths are efficiency and precision. He routinely gets into a groove from which opponents routinely struggle to remove him.
Tre’Davious White and the rest of the Bills’ defensive backs will allow their share of big plays against Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and the rest of the Bengals’ big-play receivers. It will be up to Buffalo’s secondary to maintain coverage for as long as possible to cause Burrow to hesitate before releasing throws and/or force the ball into traffic.
4. The Bills’ pass rush has mostly held up fine without Von Miller. This is a game that will place the greatest pressure to date on the rest of Buffalo’s defensive front.
With Burrow’s success predicated on accuracy, the best way to reduce his impact is to make him as uncomfortable as possible in the pocket. The brunt of that task will fall on the interior of the defensive line. That means DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle must provide constant pressure up the middle.
It also means that Greg Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, Boogie Basham and A.J. Epenesa have to do their part by bringing enough heat from the outside to add to Burrow’s discomfort.
5. Special teams is the obvious X factor in a game that’s expected to be so close.
The Bills would appear to have the edge in this area. Their kicker, Tyler Bass, is money in the clutch. Their punter, Sam Martin, is a solid veteran who shouldn’t cave in pressure situations. Then, there’s Nyheim Hines, a returner who is always capable of making an explosive return.
When the game is on the line, the Bills have the necessary ingredients in their kicking game to put them over the top.