ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night at Highmark Stadium:
1. With Miami’s Thanksgiving night loss, the table has been set for the Bills to clinch a fifth consecutive AFC East title in prime time on WGRZ-TV. Expect them to deliver … in a big way.
Let’s start with the fact the Bills are the better team. By a lot.
The 49ers look nothing like the club that was expected to contend for another Super Bowl before the season. They’re ravaged by injuries, especially on defense, and generally performing as a mediocre (if not worse) team.
On the other hand, the Bills have the look of team ready to go on a deep postseason run. They’ve won six games in a row since suffering back-to-back losses. They’re getting healthier and showing increasing cohesion with a roster that has undergone multiple changes.
It makes sense for the Bills to wrap up the division and a playoff spot as early as possible because it potentially allows for them to ease back on the throttle through the rest of the season. It could allow for them to rest some starters periodically as their seeding status becomes better defined. They continue to trail the Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC.
2. Matt Milano’s return — he was activated from injured reserve Saturday after a week of fully participating in practice — figures to bring even more improvement to a defense that has played well without him.
The Bills have been holding up well at linebacker, thanks to solid performances by Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams. Adding Milano, who has tremendous ball instincts, to the mix gives the Bills a higher degree of opportunism.
Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich should also be able to incorporate more wrinkles to his game plan because of Milano’s off-the-charts intelligence and knowledge of the scheme.
“The way Matt plays the game, the way he has played the game is special,” nickel back Taron Johnson said. “So having a guy like that on the field is going to make our defense tremendously better. So, whether he’s here this week or whenever that time comes, I’m just excited to have him back.
“Just his physicality and how fast he can see plays and just trigger, you know what I'm saying? I think he does such a good job with that. Also, blitzing and just making plays like he's made a ton of plays in his career with the with the Bills. And just having a guy like that out there is helps us a ton.”
Having Milano back doesn’t mean Bernard or Williams will be relegated to lesser roles. If anything, Milano’s presence should help bring out the best in the rest of the linebackers as well as the defensive line.
3. Josh Allen should have no problem finding success against a Niners defense that hasn’t been getting good pressure on the quarterback.
The 49ers’ greatest defensive shortcoming is the absence of star end Nick Bosa, who has been dealing with hip and oblique injuries. San Francisco has additional injuries in the front seven and secondary. Giving Allen time and comfort in the pocket is a recipe for disaster for a defense. Look for him to pick apart the secondary as he continues to involve his full array of available pass-catchers.
Despite the loss of tight end Dalton Kincaid, who is sidelined with a knee injury, and the possible absence of wide receiver Keon Coleman, who is questionable with a wrist injury, Allen should have more than enough chances to make plays through the air.
Amari Cooper is healthy from the wrist injury with which he was dealing. Look for him to make a significant impact with high-impact catches against deep coverage.
Kahlil Shakir has emerged as one of the very best slot receivers in the game. His playmaking skills are an integral part of the Bills’ passing game, and the defensive attention he commands is helping to create room for other receivers.
Dawson Knox should be able to continue to pick up the slack at tight end. Running backs James Cook and Ray Davis also figure to chip in as pass-catchers.
4. Brock Purdy missed last weekend’s loss against Green Bay with a shoulder injury and his status remains up in the air for Sunday night.
That means the 49ers could again have Brandon Allen as their starting quarterback. Advantage Bills.
The Bills still would probably have an edge even if Purdy plays. For one thing, there’s a decent chance he won’t be healthy enough to perform his best. For another, the Niners might be without offensive tackle Trent Williams, who continues to be bothered by an ankle injury.
The Bills’ pass rush continues to be a force and look for it to generate considerable heat on whoever plays QB.
5. There’s a bye week factor to consider. It’s good news for the Bills, not so much for the 49ers.
The Bills have won each of their last nine games, from 2015 to 2023, coming off a bye. Seven of those victories have been with Sean McDermott as coach. The success rate speaks highly of not only how well McDermott and his staff maximize the use of the extra time to clean up whatever short comings were identified in games played before the bye. Additionally, it shows how refreshed the players have been post-bye.
“I mean, depending on your schedule, obviously we have some time off to just recharge our batteries, and obviously that plays a huge role this late in the season,” Shakir said. “So, yeah, I think it’s just more of guys detaching for a little bit and hanging with family, friends. Guys who’ve got kids, just getting some true family time, and then, you know, stepping away for a little bit and then coming back just with a fresh mind and just ready to go.”
On the other hand, the 49ers have gone 4-4 in games against teams coming off a bye since 2022. No other team has played more than five such games since ’22, though the Rams will play their sixth Sunday.