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Carucci Take 2: Tua’s return doesn’t reduce Bills’ edge vs. Dolphins

Much has been made nationally about the “spark” Tua Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion gives the Dolphins’ offense. It doesn’t matter in this game.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Highmark Stadium:

1. Much has been made nationally about the “spark” Tua Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion gives the Dolphins’ offense. It doesn’t matter in this game.

True, there was evidence of an offensive resurgence in Miami’s 28-27 loss against Arizona last Sunday, but the Bills present a much greater challenge. Remember, Tagovailoa was on the field for most of Buffalo’s 31-10 win at Miami on Sept. 12 before suffering the concussion that would sideline him for the next five weeks, including a bye.

The Bills’ defense knows how to befuddle him with deep coverage that minimizes the impact of his speedy targets and apply corresponding pressure that forces him to move around and generally be uncomfortable in the pocket. If anything, Buffalo’s D is playing better than it did during the previous meeting with the Dolphins.

It's also a fact the Bills consistently match up well against Miami. They’ve won five straight and 12 of the past 13 against them, including the playoffs. Since 2017, they’ve scored 506 points, including the postseason, against the Dolphins. That’s the most by any team against any opponent in that stretch. Another point to consider is the fact since ’17, the Bills are 8-0 at home against the Dolphins (including the playoffs).

Oh, and there’s this: the Bills are averaging a league-best 38.3 points per game at home, while the Dolphins are averaging an NFL-low 9.3 points per game on the road.

The bottom line is that the 2-5 Dolphins should present little to no threat to the clear path the 6-2 Bills have to a fifth consecutive AFC East championship.

2. Expect Josh Allen’s already strong case for NFL MVP to get a little bit stronger after Sunday.

Not only is Allen 12-2 against the Dolphins (counting the postseason) in his career, his 37 touchdown passes and 42 total TDs against them are each 14 more than against any other opponent. He also averages 318.6 offensive yards per game against Miami in the regular season, which is the most by any player with 10-plus starts against a single opponent since NFL began tracking starts in 1950.

Allen has been able to consistently avoid being bothered by the Dolphins’ pass rush, which tends to sell on trying to get him to the ground rather than worrying about keeping a defender free (a “spy”) to pursue Allen as a runner. Consequently, Allen can shred the Dolphins with his arm and his legs.

His performance has been the key to the Bills scoring an NFL-best 31 or more points in five games this season. He’s first among quarterbacks with a 14-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and third with 17 offensive TDs and a passer rating of 107.6.

3. After hearing critics frequently question its lack of dynamic players, the Bills’ receiving group has made a huge jump in its collective performance the past two weeks.

Rookie Keon Coleman is proving to be a play-making threat and living up to the hype that followed him into the NFL after the Bills made him a second-round draft pick. Coleman was an instant hit with fans with his fun-loving personality, but after a slow start to the season, he’s now displaying skills that warrant the excitement his arrival generated. He is figuring out how to beat defensive backs off the line and utilize his long, lean basketball-type frame to come down with the 50-50 balls that come his way.

Kahlil Shakir continues to develop into one of the NFL’s more dependable slot receivers. Besides having sure hands, Shakir uses precise route-running and exceptional balance and change-of-direction skills to make the most of each catch.

Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid also are emerging as larger factors as receivers.

Of course, none of this would be happening without Allen’s elite passing. With each game, he takes the play of his pass-catchers to another level.

The acquisition of Amari Cooper has also helped. Though he has less impactful last week at Seattle than he was in his Bills debut against Tennessee, Cooper makes a difference simply by being on the field and forcing opponents to respect him as a deep threat and cover accordingly. The fact he’s questionable for Sunday with a wrist injury is a concern because his absence could reduce the overall impact of Buffalo’s receivers.

4. Running the football is a major component of the Bills’ success this season and should only become more vital in the coming weeks.

The Bills’ rush rate of 49.9% is the team’s highest since 2007, when it was 50.7, and eighth best in the NFL. From 2020-23, the Bills’ rush rate through eight games averaged 40%.

James Cook has blossomed into a top-level back not only with his production (he leads the team with 99 carries for 452 yards and seven touchdowns), but also with his running style. He’s showing much greater patience in waiting for holes to open before exploding through.

Speaking of those holes, the Bills offensive line is doing a remarkable job of blocking for the run. The unit is benefitting from staying healthy and the resulting continuity and cohesion. Plenty of credit also goes to the guidance of O-line coach Aaron Kromer, one of the league’s very best at his job.

5. Despite having players injured and one suspended, the Bills’ defense has been solid and steady.

It played its best game of the season in last Sunday’s 31-10 victory at Seattle but has mostly been on point with one exception — the 35-10 loss at Baltimore on Sept. 29.

The four games in which the Bills have given up 10 or fewer points is the most for any team in the NFL. Buffalo’s four games won by 21 or more points also leads the league.

The return of edge rusher Von Miller from a four-game suspension should help enhance the pass rush, depending on how much he plays and the level of rust he might have from being out. Getting linebacker Terrel Bernard back from ankle and pectoral injuries should also be a boost to the Bills’ handling of the Dolphins’ run game.

One potential concern is the fact cornerback Christian Benford, who has been having an outstanding season, is questionable with a wrist injury.

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