ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at Highmark Stadium:
1. Regular-season outcomes between these teams are easy to dismiss, given that Bills victories don’t translate to the same thing happening in the playoffs. They’ve won three straight in the regular season but have lost three straight in the postseason.
I’m not dismissing this regular-season encounter, though. A Buffalo win would have significant ramifications beyond the obvious potential of a higher playoff seeding that could result in a postseason rematch in Orchard Park. First, it would give the Bills the pride that goes with being the club that gave the Chiefs their first loss of the season. Second, it would mark the best of the Bills’ eight triumphs. Third, it would give the Bills substantial momentum to carry into an upcoming three-game stretch that includes a couple of NFC heavyweights: San Francisco and Detroit.
Meanwhile, though the Chiefs undoubtedly would love to keep the distinction of being the NFL’s lone unbeaten team, their chances of staying perfect could easily be compromised late in the season when they could have everything clinched for the playoffs and might sit starters.
The fact that two of the league’s best teams are squaring off this late in the season provides a postseason-like atmosphere that not only will electrify Highmark Stadium but also capture the attention of football-loving fans everywhere, even those with no allegiances to the Bills or Chiefs.
2. There isn’t another quarterback rivalry in the NFL that matches the marquee value of Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes vs. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is worthy of consideration, as is Mahomes vs. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. However, neither has as much history or drama as Allen vs. Mahomes.
Allen and Mahomes have a way of bringing out the best in each other, with each QB knowing he must play at the highest level possible to come out on top. Allen has a 3-1 regular-season record against Mahomes. He has a 9-2 touchdown-passes-to-interceptions ratio to Mahomes’ 7-5, 291 offensive yards to Mahomes’ 308, 11 offensive TDs to Mahomes’ seven, and three giveaways to Mahomes’ six.
Interestingly, the postseason comparison, aside from wins and losses, is almost dead even. Allen has a 7-1 touchdown-passes-to-interceptions ratio to Mahomes’ 8-0, 343.3 offensive yards per game to Mahomes’ 337, 9-9 offensive TDs, and one giveaway to Mahomes’ zero.
3. As much focus as there is on the quarterbacks, this game — like so many others — will likely come down to which team controls the line of scrimmage.
The Chiefs’ strongest area is its defensive front, especially the line. That has arguably had the most to do with the team’s 9-0 record.
The Bills’ offensive line has performed consistently well in pass protection and is solid when it comes to run-blocking. If the Bills are without right tackle Spencer Brown, who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, the chore of keeping Allen upright could become a bit more difficult. Either way, look for offensive coordinator Joe Brady to implement a balanced attack that will include a fair amount of running that will help keep the Chiefs’ defense off-balance.
The weakest area of the Chiefs is its offensive tackle play. The Bills should be able to exploit that reasonably well with Greg Rousseau, who has been a rising star this season. He has been an explosive force in almost every game, generating sacks and pressures. Rousseau and Von Miller should be able to apply consistent heat on Mahomes, making him uncomfortable and forcing him into errant throws or turnovers.
4. The Bills’ offense won’t have two of its better pass-catchers, tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) and wide receiver Keon Coleman (wrist), but should be able to overcome the absences.
Buffalo’s receiver depth has risen to the occasion with Kahlil Shakir and Mack Hollins picking up a good deal of the slack. If Amari Cooper — who is listed as questionable with a wrist injury — plays, that should do plenty to elevate the overall quality of the pass-catching group. Even if Cooper is limited, his mere presence should draw coverage away from the others.
It's also imperative that tight end Dawson Knox steps up and contributes far more as a receiver. Allen needs that shallow target to take advantage of the openings the Chiefs leave underneath their deep coverage.
Expect running backs James Cook and Ray Davis to also be heavily involved as receivers.
5. The loss of Harrison Butker due to a knee injury is a huge blow to the Chiefs.
For one thing, Butker is one of the best kickers in league history and as good as any active kicker in the game. For another, most Chiefs games have been close, making reliable kicking vital to their chances for success.
The Chiefs have turned to rookie Spencer Shrader, who they signed off the New York Jets’ practice squad. He made both of the field goals he attempted, from 25 and 45 yards, as a practice-squad elevation for the Jets in their 31-6 loss against Arizona last week.