ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday at Lumen Field:
1. A stat that doesn’t get nearly enough NFL-wide attention is Josh Allen being the only quarterback in the league through seven games not to throw an interception, based on minimum attempts by the 32 qualified in this category.
We tend to react more to touchdown and yardage totals. We’d certainly have plenty to say if Allen had an NFL-leading number of pickoffs.
The fact he has taken such great care of the ball, though, has gotten largely overlooked. Yet, it’s a major factor in the Bills’ 5-2 start and will likely continue to have plenty to do with their quest to be a serious postseason contender.
For Allen, it’s a significant turnaround from last season, when he threw a career-high 18 interceptions, which was second-most in the league behind Sam Howell. Allen went only three games without a pick in 2023.
A large part of Allen’s improved efficiency is his concerted effort to make better decisions on his throws. He’s mostly avoiding forcing passes into tight coverage. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has a hand in this as well, with game plans and play-calling that have Allen frequently looking for higher-percentage mid to short-range throws.
How much pride does Allen take in the reduction of interceptions?
“A lot of pride,” he said. “I think that’s one of the things I wanted to clean up, really, the last couple of years. So, again, I’m just trying to take it one play at a time, make the right decision, and get it to our guys.”
Counting last January’s playoff run, Allen has thrown 286 passes without an interception, which is the longest active streak in the NFL and longest in Bills history. It’s no coincidence that Brady was also running the offense then, in an interim capacity.
2. It will be interesting to see how Josh Allen’s remarkable stretch of keeping passes out of opponents’ hands holds up against the Seahawks’ defense.
The Seahawks had a season-high three takeaways last Sunday as they snapped a three-game losing streak with a 34-14 victory against Atlanta.
Mike Macdonald, in his first season as an NFL head coach, brings vast defensive experience to Seattle. He’s the former defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens and is known for scheming that relies mainly on the line to rush the passer, while keeping everyone else in coverage. The only previous time Allen faced him was in 2022, during a 23-20 Bills victory against Baltimore, when the QB was 19-of-36 passing for 213 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 68.4.
This season, the Seahawks, per NFL Next Gen stats, are pressuring opponents on 40.4% of dropbacks, which is fourth in the league. According to Next Gen stats, Allen has completed only 42.9% of his throws when pressured by non-blitz pass rushes since 2023, lowest among 34 quarterbacks with 50-plus attempts under pressure when not blitzed. The Seahawks’ defense ranks third in the league with 38.4% QB pressures when not blitzing.
3. Amari Cooper had a nice Bills debut last Sunday. It’s fair to think he’ll perform even better in his second game, after a fuller week of preparation than the four days of cramming he did for Tennessee.
Cooper was on the field for 35% of the offensive snaps (19) against the Titans. He had four receptions on five targets for 66 yards and a touchdown that sparked a 27-point burst in the second half of the Bills’ 34-10 win.
Cooper immediately showed his signature smooth and precise route running, as well as his exceptional hands. With more time to practice and study video, he should be able to have an even larger role in the offense and likely be put in more positions to make big plays.
4. Another underappreciated aspect of Bills’ season is the performance of the offensive line.
The group has done especially well in pass protection. According to Next Gen stats, Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins have allowed two of the four lowest pressure rates among offensive tackles this season, based on a minimum of 200 blocking snaps.
Brown’s pressure rate is 5.9, while Dawkins’ is 6.0. Occupying the top two spots in the NFL are Cincinnati’s Orlando Brown Jr. (3.8) and Tampa Bay’s Tristin Wirfs (4.0).
The Bills also have been running the ball effectively, with line providing consistent daylight for James Cook and Ray Davis. The line’s ability to generate push becomes even greater when Brady shows a commitment to the run, as he has in the Bills’ current two-game winning streak after back-to-back losses.
5. This would be an especially bad time for the Bills to get off to the slow starts that have been a problem for them this season.
That’s because the Seahawks have an explosive passing game, with Geno Smith leading the league with 1,985 passing yards and an average of 283.6 yards per game. If he remains in the top spot at the end of the season, he will become the first player in franchise history to lead the NFL in passing.
Smith’s three 300-yard passing games ties him with Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield for most in the league. But Smith is more than a thrower. He also is a dynamic runner, averaging 23 yards per game.
The Bills could get a break with standout Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf, who is second on the team with 35 receptions, listed as doubtful with a knee injury he suffered last Sunday against the Falcons. However, Seattle still has five other players with 20-plus receptions in Jaxon Smith-Njigba (37), Tyler Lockett (30), Noah Fant (24), and running backs Kenneth Walker III (23) and Zach Charbonnet (20).
Conversely, the Seahawks’ offense no doubt will appreciate the fact they won’t be seeing linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle/pectoral) and tackle DeWayne Carter (wrist, which landed him on injured reserve) in the Bills’ defense. Carter has played two of his better games the past two weeks, and had a breakout performance against Tennessee. The absences of Bernard and Carter, along with that of linebacker Matt Milano, will likely place a greater strain on an already weak Bills run defense.
Walker and Charbonnet are a formative one-two backfield punch. Despite missing two games, Walker ranks third in the league with seven touchdowns. Charbonnet is second on the Seahawks with four TDs (three rushing, one receiving). The only other running back duo in the league with four or more TDs are Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
It all comes back to the importance of the Bills getting off to a fast start, especially on offense, to not to fall into a hole that can quickly grow deeper.
“I think, really, in all but maybe one or two games, we really haven’t clicked early on,” Allen said. “And it’s taken us a couple drives to feel out what the defense is doing and getting into a rhythm. So, getting off to a fast start is our utmost important thing going forward.”