ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the New York Giants on Sunday night at Highmark Stadium:
1. The outcome should validate the Bills are rightfully considered overwhelming favorites.
Vegas oddsmakers have this one nailed. There’s nothing about the Giants that should suggest they belong on the same field as the Bills. They’re every bit as bad a team as their 1-4 record suggests. Perhaps, they’re worse than that, given they could have easily lost to the 1-4 Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.
The Bills might seem wobbly after last Sunday’s loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars dropped them to 3-2 and with some key injuries, especially on defense. But they remain one of the better teams in the NFL. There’s no comparing their talent to that of the Giants, who also have injuries, the biggest of which is the neck issue that will sideline starting quarterback Daniel Jones. Even if Jones were healthy, the Bills would still be considered significantly superior.
Each of the Giants’ four losses has been lopsided, beginning with the 40-0 season-opening blowout against the Dallas Cowboys.
Look for the Bills to bounce back from their sleep-walking effort in London with a comfortable victory against the Giants.
2. This will be the not-so-triumphant return of Tyrod Taylor to Orchard Park.
Taylor has the misfortune of stepping in for Jones as the Giants’ starter. He’ll be working behind an atrocious offensive line that the Bills should be able to dominate.
Taylor did help the Bills make an unexpected wild-card playoff appearance, breaking a 17-year postseason drought, in 2017. For that, he merits a place of respect in franchise history. But the team was never going to make him its long-term answer at QB and went ahead with making Josh Allen a first-round pick in 2018.
Taylor can move around and has a stronger arm than Jones. Taylor also tends to avoid risky throws that can be intercepted. But he’s a journeyman backup, not a starting-caliber quarterback. The Bills’ defense will likely remind us of that by constantly swarming him with pressure and forcing mistakes.
3. How big is The Brian Daboll Factor?
There’s no denying Daboll has great familiarity with Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense, which hasn’t radically changed since his final season as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator in 2021. There’s no denying that current Bills OC Ken Dorsey learned much of what he knows about preparing game plans and calling plays from Daboll.
Both will play at least some role in how the game unfolds, but I doubt it will be all that significant.
What Daboll knows about Allen and Dorsey only goes as far as the execution of the Giants’ players. Suffice it to say the execution isn’t expected to be any better than it has been since the beginning of the season.
Bad teams rarely improve based on Xs and Os.
4. The game will provide a first glimpse at what the Bills’ defense looks like minus its best player, linebacker Matt Milano, and stout tackle DaQuan Jones.
Both suffered what appear to be season-ending injuries against Jacksonville that required surgeries – Milano due to a broken leg/damaged knee and Jones due to a torn pectoral muscle. Their absence effectively guts what had been the strongest pieces to the Bills’ run defense.
If Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who is listed as questionable with an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the last three games, is able to play, he could find more success than might otherwise have been the case with Milano and Jones on the field. If Barkley sits out again, there should be no reason for the Bills to struggle badly against the run.
The Bills also could continue to feel the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury against Miami Oct. 4. Having cornerback Dane Jackson listed as questionable with a foot injury could prove problematic as the Bills’ secondary depth undergoes more testing.
My sense is that it could prove to be more of a long-range problem than something that will be a major issue in the near term.
5. Josh Allen needs to do a better job of dealing with the blitz.
Allen was far from terrible against the Jaguars. However, he and the rest of the Bills’ offense did have some early struggles. Part of that was because of a lack of energy, likely caused by jet lag stemming from the team’s decision to arrive in London only two days before kickoff and have no ability to acclimate to the five-hour time difference. But part of it also resulted from the Jags’ effective blitzing.
Giants defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale heavily incorporates the blitz into his scheme, so expect Allen to see plenty of extra pass rushers. Allen needs to elevate his awareness of where his hot routes are and get the ball out of his hand quickly. That could be more difficult with tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid listed as questionable with a wrist injury and a concussion, respectively. The Bills mainly use Kincaid as a slot target, having him run short and intermediate routes.
One way the Bills can help slow down the effectiveness of the Giants’ blitzing is by getting their running game back in gear. After some impressive showings on the ground during a three-game winning streak, the Bills’ rushing attack disappeared against Jacksonville, generating an atrocious 29 yards and an average of 2.1 yards per carry.