ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night at M&T Bank Stadium:
1. It’s understandable that, for many NFL observers, the Bills need to win to remove all doubt that they’re the best team in the league.
Before the season, the Ravens were viewed as a leading Super Bowl contender and had fewer blemishes than a Bills team transitioning at multiple positions and on the coaching staff.
Now, let’s talk facts. The Bills are 3-0. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball. Josh Allen is playing better than any quarterback in the league and has built the strongest case to be NFL MVP.
The Ravens are 1-2. They’re without an identity, displaying almost nothing that supports the offseason/preseason hype. Their offense hasn’t shown consistent explosiveness or power that the Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry combo was supposed to bring. Their defense is weak on the back end and continues to show an inability to close out games.
The Bills are the superior team. Perhaps this game won’t be as easy for them as their last two, but it’s another that they figure to win because, once again, they’re the better team. The expectations for the Ravens are driving the notion that a Bills victory will carry more weight than the three they have.
But the fact is the Bills are already standing tall with as solid an argument as any to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Widespread assumptions that a remade receiving corps, changes on the offensive line, a revamped secondary, key defensive injuries and coaching staff alterations were going to force them to take a backward step have evaporated.
The reality is the Bills are good. Very good.
“It starts with Josh Allen,” Von Miller said. “He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league and he’s been playing like the best quarterback in the league, throughout this bite-sized portion of the season.”
Expect that to continue as the sample grows.
2. Lamar Jackson is an exceptionally gifted athlete and deserved the two league MVPs he has won during his career, including the one last season.
But he isn’t performing as an MVP now.
Jackson is far too reliant on his immense running skills. He’ll likely be in run mode for much of Sunday night’s game as the Bills’ defense continues to take away targets with tight coverage and scheming meant to minimize big plays.
That isn’t going to get it done for the Ravens, especially if Allen has his way with a bad secondary. Despite all the injuries to the Bills’ defense, the unit in place is loaded with players who are fast and have a great deal of football intelligence. They can prevent Jackson from having many game-breaking runs. And the more he runs, the more susceptible the Ravens will be to getting holding penalties.
Here’s something else to consider. Sean McDermott has been making a habit this season of gushing about opponents. That isn’t a new tactic. Coaches long have showered pregame praise on the opposition, generally to take away a bit of competitive fire. However, when McDermott does it, there’s a sense he’s passively showing how much confidence he has in his team’s ability to prevent those sterling qualities from showing up in the game.
It felt as if McDermott went a bit overboard with Jackson this week.
“He’s a reigning MVP in the NFL for a reason,” the coach said. “I think it’s the one line that says it all. They were the number one seed, had the best record in football last year, and it’s driven by him. He’s just an incredible athlete, incredible player, probably in a lot of ways changed some of the things around the NFL by the way he plays, and so just the utmost respect for him and his game.”
We’ll see how that plays out Sunday night.
3. Derrick Henry, who joined the Ravens in the offseason, is considered the biggest difference-maker for this matchup.
Much of that is based on Henry’s body of work, as he established himself as one of the best running backs in NFL history with Tennessee. Whether the Ravens have that version is debatable. He carried only 31 times in his first two games this season before getting 25 attempts for 151 yards and two touchdowns against Dallas last Sunday.
The Cowboys’ mostly soft run defense is hardly a good gauge for rushing success. The Ravens also have some injuries on their offensive line that could very well compromise Henry’s ability to find big openings.
Here’s more McDermott gushing, this time about Henry: “It’s incredible what he’s been able to do with his career. Future Hall-of-Famer. First-ballot Hall-of-Famer and just an amazing, once-in-a-lifetime type of running back. Really hard to stop. Seems like it’s a marriage made in heaven with what they do and how Coach (John) Harbaugh wants to play. I mean, the line of scrimmages, they dominate, right? And that’s very impressive.”
Equally impressive is how, despite all the turnover and injuries on defense, the Bills have managed to rank in the top eight in the NFL in both yards and points allowed.
“Well, I think the defensive coaching staff has done a really good job,” Miller said. “You know, led by Bobby (Babich), and they’ve done a really good job of developing. They’ve done a good job of shaping game plans that play to our strengths, and I think that's been evident. And then the players themselves taking the ownership of, ‘Hey, this is my opportunity to step up for the team and be ready to do that.’
“And then those players that were already in the starting lineup, continuing to take their game, one by one, up to a new level. … And then when you look at the offense and the complementary football that we’ve been able to play, as well as the special teams, it’s really helped.”
4. The Ravens’ defense is going to have issues dealing with an offense that has done a superb job of keeping opponents guessing with a variety of ways to move the ball.
The Bills can use power and pound away with James Cook and Ray Davis, as they did mostly through the first two games of the season. Then, last week against Jacksonville, they unleased a well-balanced pass attack in which Allen completed passes to 10 different receivers.
The uncertainty that Joe Brady’s scheming causes among defenders should provide a significant edge.
“I think that’s a huge part to it,” Allen said. “I think we’ve shown the ability to be in big personnel and run it and throw it. We’ve shown the ability to be in small personnel and throw it and run it. Run game, play action, drop back, quarterback run game, like there's just a lot of opportunities that we have to do different things throughout the game.
“We have different chess pieces that we're using very well and Joe’s using very well right now, and they're doing a great job of getting in the playbook and understanding what everybody's role is. But it’s, again, the ability at any different time to throw it to somebody else and they be our first read. It’s very fun. It’s easy on me and Joe’s been doing a great job of calling plays.”
It’s worth noting that the Ravens are allowing 26 points per game, which is nearly 10 more than in 2023 (16.3).
5. This game begins a stretch of three in a row on the road and four of the next five away from home.
The Bills are at Houston next Sunday, then face the Jets on Monday Night Football on Oct. 14 at MetLife Stadium before returning home against Tennessee on Oct. 20. After that, they travel to Seattle for an Oct. 27 clash with the Seahawks.
It’s a difficult stretch, but there isn’t a matchup that appears unfavorable for the Bills. There’s also a reasonable chance the team will get healthier along the way, with All-Pro nickel back Taron Johnson (forearm) and linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) apparently mending well enough to avoid the minimum four-week stay on injured reserve.