BUFFALO, N.Y. — The Buffalo Bills are scheduled to play two games against the New England Patriots this month, but only one – to be played Monday night at Highmark Stadium – will provide the stronger indication of the type of team the Bills have.
The second, on Dec. 26 at Foxborough, Mass., will undoubtedly carry a great deal of importance to the outcome of the AFC playoff picture. It’s just that the first comes at a time when, thanks to their inconsistent play, a huge question mark dangles over the Bills’ identity.
Beyond already having one more loss than they did in 2020, are they, in fact, a weaker team than the one that fell one game short of the Super Bowl last year? Were all of those lofty expectations of the Bills going the distance and winning it all this season the stuff of so much giddy daydreaming?
The Bills certainly don’t look much like that 2020 club. They don’t routinely make those dynamic, game-breaking plays through the air, even though they are, as last year, ranked second in the NFL in scoring. Their running game hasn’t presented much of a threat.
The Bills’ defense ranks first in the league in yards allowed and turnovers, and second in scoring, but has shown vulnerability against the run.
The AFC East standings show the 8-4 Patriots in first place, followed by the 7-4 Bills. That sets the stage for the Bills to reclaim the top spot of the division with which they were supposed to run away … or for the Pats to win their seventh game in a row and reinforce their resurgence after missing the playoffs last season, their first since 2000 without Tom Brady.
This has the makings of a close, competitive, down-to-the-wire game. Here are some reasons I like the Bills’ chances of coming out on top and reaffirming the validity of all of that offseason/preseason optimism:
Mac Jones, the Patriots’ quarterback, is a rookie.
Yes, he has played well and is a strong favorite to be named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Yes, he’s from a big-time program, Alabama, and performed more like an established veteran than a newbie. But there is reason to believe Jones’ lack of experience will compromise his ability to lead his team to victory Monday night.
For one, Jones has never experienced the sort of hostile environment he’ll face with a stoked prime-time sellout crowd at Highmark. For another, he’s being carefully used as a system quarterback, meaning that whatever success he has throwing largely depends on the effectiveness of New England’s rushing attack, which ranks 12th in the league.
Expect the Bills to do everything possible defensively to prevent the Pats from gaining any traction on the ground and force Jones to try to beat them with his arm.
Last Sunday, Jones was repeatedly off-target and left plenty to be desired despite the Patriots’ 23-point win against Tennessee.
Until he and the rest of the offense got going in the second half, the Pats’ point production relied on field goals. That shouldn’t cut it against the Bills, who are averaging 29.6 points per game.
It’s fair to say Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense performed better against a healthier Titans defense in the 34-31 loss at Tennessee.
Jones is 0-2 in games where the opponent has scored 25-plus points.
The Patriots’ defense is playing well, far better than it did last season, but Allen has learned plenty about the dealing with the challenges/brilliance of Bill Belichick’s scheming in five previous encounters with New England.
The biggest lesson: Never expect to see the same defense game to game or even snap to snap.
“It’s all game-plan based and he wants to try to take away your greatest strength,” Allen told reporters.
The learning hasn’t been easy. Allen continues to be haunted by a poor performance in his first start against the Patriots as a rookie in 2018. He remembers giving into his urge, which creeps into his game to this day, to try to do too much. The result was turnovers.
“Going back to that game and just not trying to play hero ball,” Allen said. “I think I threw three interceptions in the first half or something like that and didn’t help our team in that aspect, didn’t help us move the ball. But again, learning with Sean McDermott and (Brian) Daboll’s help, just trying to end every possession with a kick, whether it be a punt, field goal or PAT and giving ourselves the best chance possible.
“And, again, I think it all comes back to that whole turnover deal.”
History is on the side of the Allen-Stefon Diggs connection.
Last season, Allen was 3-0 against teams at least four games over .500. The Patriots are the first such team he’ll face this year. In 2020, Allen became the first AFC East quarterback to sweep the Patriots since Vinny Testaverde and Jay Fiedler did so in 2000. Allen could become the first QB to beat Belichick in three consecutive games since former New York Giant Eli Manning achieved that feat from 2007-2011, including the postseason.
In 2020, Diggs joined Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison as the only players with 200-plus receiving yards against the Patriots since 2000. In three career games against New England, Diggs has averaged 95.3 receiving yards per game, the fifth-most by any receiver against Belichick as a head coach with a minimum of three NFL games played.