KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills game against the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium:
1. If there’s any talent gap between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, it’s measured by the thickness of a credit card. Picking one over the other is mostly driven by fan loyalty.
Allen and Mahomes arguably are the two best quarterbacks in the NFL. Both are the definition of dynamic, consistently able to generate big plays as throwers and runners. Allen has the size that allows him to run over defenders and the speed to run past them. Mahomes is an improvisational wizard, executing no-look passes and other plays that routinely make you say, “Did I really just see that?”
They’ll likely do their typical big-play volleying, though Allen figures to have an edge because the Chiefs’ secondary has proven vulnerable to deep passes. Mahomes will have his share of success, but the Bills’ defense has held up well in the face of a rash of injuries the past few weeks and is getting healthier.
Mahomes had the last laugh when the two last met in January, but Allen, for all intents and purposes, did enough to win the game, which the Bills gave away in the final 13 seconds of regulation.
2. The Bills will get the most definitive proof to date that they made a wise investment in Von Miller.
The six-year, $120-million contract (including $51.4 million in guarantees) they gave Miller was the direct result of last January’s divisional-round playoff loss at Kansas City, as well as the previous year’s AFC Championship Game defeat they suffered at Arrowhead.
Finding a way to pressure/sack Mahomes was the team’s top off-season priority. Miller is the way. At 33, he’s performing as well as at any point in his illustrious career. He should do plenty to disrupt Mahomes and reduce at least some of his effectiveness.
Miller will make an impact on his own, but just as he has done for most of the previous five games, he’ll help draw blockers away from Greg Rousseau and other members of the Bills’ defensive front.
3. The Bills are healthier than they’ve been in weeks … and that could have the Chiefs feeling sick.
Despite missing large chunks of their starting secondary and defensive line, the Bills have been dominant in three of their four wins. Even their loss, at Miami, was more the result of offensive miscues than missing bodies on defense.
The return of safety Jordan Poyer, alone, should prove considerably helpful against the top-scoring offense in the NFL. The league’s interception leader (with four) will play a key role in what probably will be a multi-layered approach to covering Kansas City’s biggest pass-catching threat, tight end Travis Kelce.
4. In another battle of student vs. teacher, there’s reason to think Sean McDermott will get the upper hand over Andy Reid this time.
One of the more under-appreciated aspects of the Bills’ 4-1 start is how well McDermott and his staff have handled game-planning, play-calling, and in-game adjustments. That was particularly true in the team’s 23-20 victory at Baltimore where the Bills’ defense adjusted its scheme just before halftime and used uncharacteristically aggressive blitzing to shut down Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens’ explosive offense the rest of the way. The key was the ability to form a figurative net around the pocket that usually accounted for Jackson’s outside runs. Look for something similar against Mahomes.
The Bills have allowed no second-half points in four games and only one second-half touchdown all season. That’s a testament to the sharp and attentive strategic work of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.
New offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has wasted no time in finding his comfort zone with getting the best from Allen and a passing game that has shown far more patience and willingness to take the shorter and intermediate routes opponents are allowing and turning them into chain-moving gains.
5. For the Bills, the importance of a win Sunday goes beyond taking a significant step toward gaining an edge to secure the top seed in the AFC playoffs.
Eleven games remain on the schedule after Sunday, so while beating the Chiefs can go a long way toward giving the Bills a leg up for tie-breaking purposes when it comes to hosting games in January, it’s far from a guarantee the 2022 AFC title game would be played in Highmark Stadium.
A victory will, however, give the Bills the strongest reason yet to believe they have a date with Super Bowl destiny. That’s strong psychological fuel to carry into this week’s bye and the rest of the schedule.