ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the New York Jets Sunday at Highmark Stadium:
1. Josh Allen will have plenty to prove in this one.
When the Jets beat the Bills on Nov. 6, Allen was awful. He correctly accepted full blame for the Bills’ 20-17 loss. The Jets’ defense, which ranks fourth in the NFL, got the better of him through scheming and outstanding performance from front to back.
Allen was mostly uncomfortable as the Jets’ defensive front applied good pressure without needing to blitz while the back end minimized Allen’s ability to throw deep. Allen’s frustration and befuddlement boiled over to the point where he made two poor decisions that led to interceptions. Cornerback Sauce Gardner, the leading candidate for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, did an excellent job in coverage.
Allen must apply all that he learned from studying what the Jets did against him in the previous meeting, what mistakes he made in his reads and what adjustments he can expect from the Jets’ defense as it also plans for changes by Allen and Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.
2. The Bills’ running game needs to show what it did in two of the last three games is more reflective of its true identity than what happened on Nov. 6.
Besides his struggles to decipher the Jets’ crafty mixture of coverages, Allen also was burdened by the absence of support from his running backs, who ran a combined 12 times for 39 yards. As has too often been the case, Allen was the Bills’ running game, generating 86 yards and a pair of touchdowns on nine carries.
Against the New England Patriots, Devin Singletary and James Cook generated 115 yards as the Bills’ offensive line dominated the Pats’ defensive front. Dorsey and Allen were disciplined in staying committed to an approach that called for persistent running and short and intermediate passes against a defense that, like the Jets, was set up to eliminate big throws. Singletary and Cook also had 172 yards on the ground against Cleveland.
With a dedicated rushing attack, the Bills can force the Jets out of some of what they will try to do in pass coverage to confuse Allen and/or discourage him from being aggressive with his arm.
3. No Von Miller, no problem.
Losing Miller for the rest of the season after the knee injury he underwent earlier this week does not, by any stretch, kill the Bills’ chances for a Super Bowl run. The team is right where it was last season, when it reached the divisional round of the playoffs and cost itself a victory mainly through poor coaching decisions.
A healthy Miller enhanced the pass rush and provided a closer who did his most effective work late in games. The Bills were right to believe that would help make a difference in the playoffs this time around. But they shouldn’t be expected to take such a dramatic step backward, as some national analysts have said, that it puts them behind other leading AFC contenders Kansas City and Cincinnati.
Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa, Shaq Lawson and Boogie Basham are more than capable of picking up the slack through their combined efforts. Expect them to make life difficult for Mike White, who replaced Zach Wilson as the Jets’ quarterback. White does a better job of reading defenses than Wilson, but he tends to force mistakes when under pressure.
4. If there’s a concern for the Bills’ defense, it is the ability to handle the Jets’ running game, which isn’t great but did find success when the teams last met.
Being without tackle Jordan Phillips, who will miss the game with a shoulder injury, could be a problem. He’s the Bills’ best run-stuffer on the line. Another potential issue is the fact linebacker Matt Milano, who is excellent against the run and didn’t play on Nov. 6, is listed as questionable with a knee injury.
The Jets ran for 174 yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry against the Bills at MetLife Stadium. The Bills cannot allow them to set a similar ball-controlling tempo Sunday.
5. It’s time for the Bills to put distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC East.
Despite a 1-2 record against AFC East opponents, they’re the best team in the division. In all three of their losses, they succumbed to self-inflicted wounds.
The Patriots’ game had the feel of a turning point. New England is normally the team that plays a low-risk, methodical style, waiting for the opponent to commit the fatal errors. The Bills turned the tables on them.
For Allen, the earlier Jets’ game should serve as a glaring reminder of the importance of remembering to play within himself at times, even though his overwhelming talent and physical gifts allow him to do superhuman things on the field. That’s the version of Allen the Bills need Sunday and for all their remaining games, including those in the postseason, which they should enter with a third consecutive divisional crown.