ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Los Angeles Chargers Saturday night at SoFi Stadium:
1. The Bills have zero excuse for losing this game.
The Chargers are a disaster. With a 5-9 record, their season has effectively ended. They’ve lost starting quarterback Justin Herbert to a season-ending broken index finger. They’ve fired their head coach and general manager. They’re merely playing out the string while hitting the reset button for next year and beyond.
All of which should serve as a giant caution sign for the 8-6 Bills, who have a history of playing down to the level of inferior competition.
They did it multiple times this season, against the New York Giants (a 14-9 win), the New England Patriots (a 29-25 loss), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (a 24-18 win), and the Denver Broncos (a 24-22 loss).
It shouldn’t happen against the Chargers for one simple reason: the Bills’ season is on the line, as it is with all three of their remaining regular-season games. The Bills are in the ultra-urgent, win-or-go-home mode. Their playoffs have already begun.
They should be as focused as they’ve been in any game. It won’t be easy to ignore how pathetic the Chargers looked in their previous outing, a 63-21 pounding at the hands of the Las Vegas Raiders on Dec. 14. But if they keep their eye on the prize, they should be fine.
2. The Bills’ dominant running performance against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday was a revelation.
Not only because of the Bills’ 266 total yards on the ground or James Cooks’ spectacular 179-yard output. It was also because of the team’s ability to be versatile and unleash an element of the offense that adds to an opponent’s defensive challenge.
This is all about The System vs. Proprietary Scheming.
Under their previous offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, the Bills were all about sticking to a system that asked Josh Allen and the rest of the explosive passing game to consistently generate big plays. It didn’t matter what the opposition did. The theory was, “This is what we do. Try to stop it.” Well, the stops were occurring, enough contribute to the Bills losing four of their six games after a 3-1 start.
After Joe Brady replaced Dorsey, the Bills shifted to leaning on opponent-specific schemes that attack weaknesses rather than relying mostly on what Buffalo’s offense does well. So, if an opponent has a smaller, quicker defense that doesn’t handle a power run game well (i.e. Dallas), you stick to your running game until it’s stopped.
The introduction of a strong rushing attack provides plenty of encouragement to the Bills’ chances of reaching the postseason and making a deep run because it allows for success during inclement weather and travels well.
3. Besides a good running game, the other thing that travels well is a solid defense. The Bills have one.
Defensive injuries have been the story of the Bills’ D in 2023. Yet, in the process of getting its season back on track, the team has played as if it is almost oblivious to the ever-growing list of banged-up players on that side of the ball.
Credit Sean McDermott for getting the best out of the players who are healthy enough to play. He consistently puts them in the right position through game planning and signal calling. McDermott excels at making proper adjustments, shifting fronts and coverages to confuse quarterbacks and take away top receiving targets.
As they proved against Kansas City and Dallas, the Bills found their way when it comes to keeping running games in check.
4. Is there any reason the Bills should be concerned about the Chargers?
Not really.
It’s hard to imagine a team whose players flat-out quit against the Raiders on Dec. 14 finding any motivation to elevate their play Saturday night.
There’s a widely held notion that teams that change coaches during the season get a “new coach bump.” Sometimes, after a team fires the coach to whom players no longer respond, there’s a greater feeling of accountability within the locker room. “Maybe the problem is us,” the players think.
The combination of pride and the desire to show ownership they still merit a spot on the roster can push members of the team give better effort in the first game after the head coach’s firing.
I’m not counting on that from the Chargers. Giff Smith, a former assistant with the Bills, is their interim head coach. Expectations are low that he can have any appreciable impact through the final few games on the schedule.
It will mainly be up to the Bills to prevent any sort of Charger performance lift to manifest itself. As a bonus, the Bills should be able to count on strong support from fans either living in the L.A. area or who have traveled there for the game. They will more than likely outnumber the Chargers’ small following in a market the Rams dominate.
5. The Bills are peaking at the absolute perfect time.
True, they are in survival mode, desperately needing to win all their remaining games to assure a playoff spot. But the fact is the Bills are playing their best football in all phases.
It will continue to serve them well as they enter a stretch of three highly winnable games. The Bills should be able to build upon the momentum they’ve had for the past four games, including that awkward overtime loss at Philadelphia, and run the table against the Chargers, Patriots and Miami.
The Bills are rightfully seen as the AFC’s most dangerous team vying for a postseason berth.