ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ season-opener against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football at MetLife Stadium:
1. Let’s get the disclaimer out of the way. This is ONLY one of 17 games on the schedule. Regardless of the outcome, it doesn’t necessarily serve as a precursor for either team’s season.
Nevertheless, there’s an obvious reason the NFL and ESPN wanted to make the matchup the first of the 2023 MNF slate. They wanted to showcase Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback/savior of the New York Jets, who had faded into irrelevance after going 12 seasons without a playoff appearance.
This is widely seen as the Jets’ opportunity to make a major statement on a national stage, but that’s only part of the story. The Bills are poised to make every bit as large a statement. In fact, theirs could end up being even bigger.
If Rodgers gives an impressive performance in a Jets victory, there will be all sorts of commentary that he and his teammates are on a non-stop flight to the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Bills will have to deal with the I-told-you-so criticism of a team in decline after last January’s postseason struggles and offseason drama.
However, a Buffalo victory, which I fully expect, will tell the rest of the league that the Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East and remain the serious contender they’ve been for the past three seasons. In other words, their Super Bowl window remains wide open.
2. The Bills figure to be catching Aaron Rodgers at the right time.
For one thing, he’s still getting oriented with his new teammates and coaches. For another, the Jets’ offensive line is, at best, a work in progress and, at worst, a problem that could make life miserable for Rodgers and the Jets’ hopes for dramatic improvement this year.
It’s fair to say that the line won’t have ideal continuity Monday night. It’s incumbent upon the Bills’ defense to take advantage of that and apply as much pressure as possible on Rodgers while also keeping the Jets’ running game — expected to be enhanced by the arrival of Dalvin Cook — in check.
Rodgers’ Hall-of-Fame-level talent includes going through his read progressions quickly and making good decisions on where to go with the ball. That should give him his best opportunity to overcome whatever heat the Bills can generate.
3. The Jets’ defense dominated the Bills when the teams split their season series in 2022. Preventing that from happening again was a priority as the Bills entered the offseason, and there’s reason to believe their efforts will pay off Monday night.
They recognized the need to get bigger, stronger and more talented in the interior of their offensive line to match up better with the ultra-powerful and quick D-line of the Jets. That’s why they signed left guard Connor McGovern in free agency and made right guard O’Cyrus Torrence a second-round draft pick.
Monday night will offer the first indication of whether the Bills, in fact, have tightened their pass protection between the tackles, from where Josh Allen has been too often pressured, and if the running game can blossom beyond the additions of Damien Harris and Latavius Murray in free agency. Better play from tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown will also make a difference.
First-round pick Dalton Kincaid was added to give the Bills better ability to attack the middle of the field, another place that figures to help the offense be more effective against the Jets and other opponents. As strong as the Jets’ defense is, one of its vulnerabilities is pass coverage by linebackers and safeties, which should help allow Kincaid and fellow tight end Dawson Knox to make plays on inside routes.
Along with Kincaid’s production, particularly in the red zone, his presence should also help open things up on the perimeter for Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
4. Besides O’Cyrus Torrence, the Bills have two other new starters — in middle linebacker Terrel Bernard and cornerback Christian Benford — getting their first chance to show they can be meaningful contributors.
Bernard reflects the largest leap of faith by coach Sean McDermott because he’ll be receiving the defensive signals from defensive coordinator McDermott via the headset-to-helmet communication system. Bernard didn’t exactly do much to separate himself from the competition for the job, thanks in part to a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for much of the summer and kept him out of all three preseason games. But he’ll be under the extreme pressure of not only correctly relaying the calls but making all the necessary adjustments of the defensive fronts in response to what the offense shows.
Benford will have his share of challenges dealing with the Jets’ explosive receivers and Aaron Rodgers’ passing. The veteran QB undoubtedly will look to pick on him early and often, choosing that as a better option than going after Tre’Davious White on the other side.
5. Monday night will give us the first taste of just how different the Bills’ defense will look with Sean McDermott calling the signals.
Expect him to show his aggressive tendencies with pass-rush combinations and coverages that allow for more risks to be taken to put the greatest amount of pressure on Rodgers.
It will be fascinating to see the mental chess match between McDermott and the smartest and most experienced quarterback the Bills will face all season. Nathaniel Hackett might be the Jets’ offensive coordinator, but the offense belongs to Rodgers. And given the over-the-top expectations for the Jets’ new QB, he will be as determined as ever to outsmart the head coach who has taken on the added duties of defensive coordinator for the first time since taking over the Bills in 2017.
Every move McDermott makes will be heavily scrutinized, including the smoothness of getting personnel on and off the field according to situations and offensive adjustments.