ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Miami Dolphins Thursday night at Hard Rock Stadium:
1. There’s so much for the Bills to prove after struggling mightily against Arizona.
The Cardinals have nowhere near the offensive firepower the Bills will face Thursday night, yet Arizona found a way to take control early and put Buffalo into a deep hole from which Josh Allen’s extreme heroics were needed for his team to escape. The Bills need to show that, beyond Allen, they can step up their performance against an opponent that’s their greatest threat to win another AFC East title.
“Yeah, it’s good for the sport,” Allen said of the renewed Bills-Dolphins rivalry. “The AFC East is a tough division. We know that. I think everybody knows that. To win this division, you’ve got to beat your in-division teams and rivals and that’s how we see it.”
It’s still very early, of course. But a win, with better play overall, will go a long way to demonstrating the Bills remain in charge of their division.
2. It’s no surprise that Josh Allen is doing his best to minimize the severity of the injury he suffered to his left hand Sunday.
For one thing, the team says he has been medically cleared to play. For another, it’s not his throwing hand. For yet another, we’re talking about as tough a quarterback as any in the game, a guy who has played through other injuries.
If there are any questions about Allen’s health, they could arise when it comes to doing some of the things he did against the Cardinals – particularly those runs that produced two touchdowns and converted two fourth downs. His signature leap over defenders, such as the one on his second TD run that resulted in the injury, are probably not advisable … but are they ever?
Allen wore a glove on his left hand in practice. He said he isn’t sure he’ll wear it Thursday night. “There’s a saying that (the hand) is a long way from the heart,” Allen said. “I like to say it’s a long way from the right hand, so we’re OK.”
The Bills won’t be OK, however, if their receivers don’t do a better job of separating from coverage than they did against the Cardinals. Though nine difference pass-catchers caught balls from Allen, no one in the remade group posed enough of a threat for Arizona’s defense to get away from its plan of blanketing the most dangerous target the Bills have, Dalton Kincaid, who caught only one pass.
The Dolphins’ defense, which has undergone plenty of change of its own, is undoubtedly going to benefit from the presence of former Bills safety Jordan Poyer.
“He’s a very smart player,” Allen said of Poyer. “He knows a lot about this offense and a lot about me, so taking that into account. … He can help out.”
3. Being without Taron Johnson, who is sidelined with the injured forearm he suffered against Arizona, is a significant blow – especially against an opponent with such an explosive offense.
“Well, I think their whole offense is a challenge, led by (Tua Tagovailoa),” Sean McDermott said. “And I think Mike McDaniel does a phenomenal job, not just as a head coach but also as an offensive play-caller and designer of plays. They’ve got tremendous, tremendous speed. I mean, it’s unlike I’ve ever seen and not just this year but in years past. … I mean, if you don’t get near them, they’re gone, right? So, even when you get near them, they pull away.”
Johnson is the Bills’ best defensive back and one of the top nickel backs in the NFL. He’s excellent in coverage and did plenty to help contain the Dolphins’ game-breaking receivers, as well as their rushing attack, in previous meetings with Miami.
Cam Lewis did a solid job in Johnson’s place. He has strong instincts and anticipation, which allows him to get in the right place to make plays. But he isn’t as talented as Johnson.
The Bills also are vulnerable at safety. Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin, who had their issues against the Cardinals, will be under immense pressure to prevent deep plays against Miami speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
However, look for the Bills to utilize defensive strategy designed to limit the effectiveness of the Dolphins’ passing game.
“I think the scheme that we’re putting in, just formation awareness and personnel awareness, where their guys are, who they want to get the ball to and where they’re lined up and really how they’re trying to get them the ball,” linebacker Terrel Bernard. “I think, as long as we go into the game understanding that aspect of it, we can put a roof over it. We can get everybody to the ball and make them drive the length of the field as opposed to creating big plays.”
4. Greg Rousseau will need another big game, because when Tua Tagovailoa gets hit early and often, he has shown a tendency to be more conscious of pressure than looking downfield.
Rousseau’s three-sack effort, which earned him AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors, almost single-handedly lifted the Bills’ defense after its poor first half Sunday. As McDermott pointed out, it’s probably unrealistic to expect Rousseau to have that many sacks each game. But a strong pass rush is vital to disrupt the Dolphins’ timing- and rhythm-based passing attack.
Equally important is containing Miami’s running game, which figures to suffer from the absence of Raheem Mostert, who has been ruled out with a chest injury suffered Sunday against Jacksonville. De’Von Achane, the Dolphins’ other primary running back, is dealing with an ankle injury, putting his availability in question.
“I think their running game is where it starts, attacking the perimeter, getting up to the second level, up to the third level, creating lanes in between the defense,” Bernard said. “I think, when they can do that, then their operation into the passing game kind of opens things up for them.”
5. It’s reasonable to at least wonder whether the fallout from Tyreek Hill’s detainment as he was driving to Hard Rock Stadium for the game Sunday will detract from the Dolphins’ preparation for the Bills.
Hill, his teammates, his coach and the entire Dolphin organization has not held back in its public criticism of how the situation was handled – with the handcuffing of a face-down Hill – by Miami-Dade police. In South Florida, the topic has overshadowed any other discussion about Miami’s season-opening win and, it seems, Thursday night’s game.
The short week is an enormous challenge for both teams. It’s fair to say the Bills are at a disadvantage because they’re traveling to the game.
But it’s hardly a crazy thought that the Hill story take away from the Dolphins’ focus.
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