ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Thursday night at Highmark Stadium:
1. Saying their season is on the line would be an overstatement. Neither a loss nor a win would singularly determine whether they capture a fourth straight AFC East crown … reach the playoffs at all … or fall into the abyss.
But it is fair to say the Bills are at a crossroads.
Through a 4-3 start, they haven’t performed anywhere near the lofty expectations that have been in place since 2020. In fact, they’ve been no better than mediocre the past three weeks, during which they’ve suffered two losses and a near defeat against the 2-5 New York Giants.
They have not looked ready to play in any of the last three games, with slow starts and sporadic play throughout. They have been consistently outplayed and outcoached. At times, they have been disjointed. At times, they have been in disarray.
Players are doing their best to downplay any notion of panic in the air.
“You lose, it’s the end of the world; you win, it’s the best thing that ever happened,” receiver Stefon Diggs said. “So, I try not to ride a rollercoaster, either. But, of course, I want to win. That’s why I say I’m extremely excited for Thursday. It’s going to be a great night of football.”
The fact remains the Bills have no place in any conversation about a being a serious postseason contender, let alone a team destined to reach the Super Bowl. Yes, that Super Bowl window seems to be smaller than ever these days.
2. Josh Allen is in an odd place, unlike any since his rise to elite status four seasons ago. He has never looked or sounded more out of sorts.
On Tuesday, Allen told reporters he was “just trying to stay in this state called ‘low positive,’ where your energy is not super high, and you’re allowing your mind to think and be free and just stay on top of everything.”
It was a surprisingly candid sharing of what seemingly is Allen’s personal challenge to pull things together psychologically. It’s one thing to see him wide-eyed and functioning with what appears to be an elevated level of anxiety. It’s another for Allen to give a detailed account of his struggles to manage it.
“Because, obviously, as the quarterback, there is a lot of things going through our mind,” he said. “So, if I can limit myself and my energy and my heart rate, I felt like I can maybe thing a little bit more. But who knows? Maybe I need to think a little bit less and just play football.”
Whatever the solution, Allen has plenty to fix. In the season-opening loss against the New York Jets and in the last three weeks, his game has not come close to resembling that of the high-end talent he has been for most of his career.
3. This feels like a potential make-or-break game for Ken Dorsey.
The Bills’ mounting challenges to score, especially in the first half, and the dysfunctional tone they set for the rest of the game have steadily turned up the heat on the offensive coordinator.
Another poor showing on his side of the ball on Thursday night could force the hand of coach Sean McDermott and lead to a change at OC. The timing would be favorable, given the mini bye that follows the game and the added time to transition someone else into the role.
Of course, a move away from Dorsey could be easier said than done, given the considerable support he has from players. No one is more in his corner than Allen, who pushed hard for Dorsey’s promotion after former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll left to become head coach of the Giants. Should McDermott choose to relieve Dorsey of his OC duties, there very well could be some uncomfortable backlash from Allen and other players.
4. For the most part, the Bills’ defense has held up reasonably well since losing cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones to injuries that are likely to sideline all three for the rest of the season. However, that wasn’t the case in last Sunday’s loss at New England.
With the additional absence of defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who missed the Patriots’ game with a toe injury, the Bills’ D was no match for a New England offense that set out to test that weakened interior. The Pats ran the ball effectively and were able to establish a balanced attack and show the rhythm the Bills sorely lacked on offense.
Still, that should not have been allowed to happen. Before last Sunday’s game, the Patriots were averaging a mere 12 points per game. Their quarterback, Mac Jones, was thought to be on the verge of a benching. Instead, he played one of the best games of his career.
Though the Bills’ defensive injuries contributed to the Pats’ offensive success, McDermott’s scheming and signal-calling also were part of the problem. He was clearly outcoached by his counterparts, Bill Belichick and OC Bill O’Brien, especially on the late touchdown drive that gave New England the victory.
That said, the Bills could get a boost if Oliver, who is questionable, ends up playing and can be mostly effective.
5. The 3-3 Buccaneers are mediocre, at best. They’ve lost three of their last four games and have many flaws on both sides of the ball.
Still, they do have a reasonably solid defense and an outstanding defensive mind in coach Todd Bowles. They can make the game an ugly, low-scoring, grind-it-out affair that could come down to a late score.
Sound familiar? It should. The Giants managed to do just that in pushing the Bills to the brink two weeks ago, also in prime time.
The Bucs are a better team than the Giants. That isn’t saying much, but it could be saying just enough to allow Tampa Bay to hand the Bills their fourth loss and intensify the panic of their season handing down the drain.