ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills game against the New England Patriots Sunday at Highmark Stadium:
1. Once again, the conversation about the Bills focuses on whether they can avoid playing down to the competition.
The reason is simple. They keep doing it. The latest reminder came in last Saturday night’s far-more-difficult-than-it-should-have-been victory against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Too many turnovers. Too many stalled drives. Too little consistent evidence of the urgency for a team that needs to keep winning to secure a playoff spot.
For all the praise the Bills merit for the defense mounting enough pass-rushing pressure and the offense delivering enough plays in the final seconds, there still was no reason for the game to be more of an escape than a beat-down.
In the Bills’ previous meeting with New England, they played so far down, that they couldn’t stand tall when the defense had a chance to close out the game. The result was an inexcusable loss that has contributed to their current desperation.
Las Vegas rightfully has the Bills as a heavy favorite Sunday. The game shouldn’t be close, yet it’s hard to trust the Bills to make it look that way.
No matter the margin, though, nothing other than a Buffalo triumph – which with some help from other teams could put the Bills in the playoffs as a wild card – would be an acceptable outcome. Technically, the Bills’ season wouldn’t be over, but it would feel as if that were the case.
2. Josh Allen has found his way into the NFL MVP discussion.
He’s having a career year (which is saying plenty given his outstanding career), the 15 interceptions notwithstanding. His league-leading 40 touchdowns passing and rushing are enough reason for Allen to be every bit as much of a candidate for the honor as Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson or San Francisco’s Brock Purdy.
If anything separates Allen from them now, it’s that Jackson and Purdy are on teams with better records and are either on the verge of winning a division title (Baltimore) or have already done so (San Francisco). But Allen can greatly enhance his case by leading the Bills to victories in the next two weeks to give the Bills their fourth consecutive AFC East crown.
Allen’s play was the main cause for the Bills going off their championship course after a 3-1 start and it’s the primary reason they have won four of their last five games. As Sean McDermott said earlier in the week, “Usually, as Joes goes, we go.”
Allen is back to consistently generating difference-making plays with his passing arm and his feet. At any moment, he can place the team on his shoulders and carry it to a win, which is the defining quality of a franchise quarterback.
3. The Bills’ defense has gotten significantly healthier, which is another reason they have absolutely no excuse for losing against Bailey Zappe and the Patriots.
Never mind that the two wins the Patriots have in the last four with Zappe as their starter have come on the road. Never mind New England has scored 20-plus points in two of its last three games or had a season-high 29 points in the victory against the Bills.
The Patriots’ offense is awful. It ranks last in the NFL in scoring and 22nd in yards. New England’s offensive line has been rocked by injuries. Its receiving corps is pathetic.
Despite major season-ending injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, the Bills’ defense has held up well. There’s every reason to believe it will perform better now that DaQuan Jones is returning from the pectoral injury he suffered against Jacksonville on Oct. 8. At the time of the injury, Jones was playing the best of the Bills’ interior defensive lineman. Since then, Ed Oliver has elevated his game and the two of them working in concert should be a major factor in Buffalo’s ability to prevent the Patriots’ offense from finding any traction.
Add the return of Micah Hyde from a neck stinger, and the stage is set for the Bills’ defense to have its most dominant game of the season.
4. Sean McDermott can’t allow the aura of Bill Belichick to get inside his head.
It has happened to many coaches on the sideline opposite one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. It has happened to McDermott multiple times.
Belichick can come up with a scheme, especially on defense, that wasn’t anticipated. He has the capacity to think so far outside the box, that opposing strategists can get their brains tangled in knots trying to combat it.
The Patriots’ defense is legit. It has allowed a league-low 3.2 yards per carry and a mere 4.9 yards per play, which is fourth in the NFL. The Bills have been at their best offensively when they are balanced, which means they must find a way to get James Cook rolling against a D that will likely have a sound plan to stop him.
5. The Bills can’t be so focused on the chance to win the division at Miami next weekend that they forget about the task at hand.
As poorly as the Patriots’ season has gone, it would be a mistake to assume they’ll simply go through the motions in this one and allow themselves to be trampled by the Bills.
Belichick won’t allow it, even if losing would be a better outcome for his team’s ability to have a high enough draft choice to land an upgrade at quarterback. For one thing, Belichick might not be the Patriots’ coach after this season, so he would have no incentive to boost the franchise’s draft position. For another, he simply isn’t wired that way as a competitor. The Bills are a divisional rival and that means something to Belichick.
The Bills have to approach the game as yet another win-or-go-home scenario. There’s no shot at the division title and significantly less hope for reaching the playoffs if they lose.
With the Dolphins-Ravens game being played simultaneously with the Bills-Patriots clash, there will be a fair amount of scoreboard-watching.
