ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the New York Jets on Monday night at MetLife Stadium:
1. This has the feel of a turning-point moment for the Bills’ season.
It isn’t only because a Buffalo loss would allow the Jets to supplant the Bills for sole possession of first place in the AFC East. It’s also because the Bills have lost their last two games against far better opponents than the ones they faced through a 3-0 start. A third straight defeat would only intensify the doubts about whether they still have what it takes to be a serious postseason contender.
The team found itself in a similar spot after last year’s 5-5 start, when the offense was struggling as it has the past two games — with Josh Allen again at the center of the struggles. The Bills would rebound to win the division, something Allen thinks the current squad can look at as a lesson about what needs to be done now.
“Yeah, just staying together,” Allen said. “And I think we have enough guys from this team that were here last year, knowing where we were last year, 5-5, and had to win so many games to get into the playoffs. (Offensive coordinator) Joe (Brady) talked about how we could have been 0-2 and gotten a three-game win streak, and now we’re feeling on top of the world. But because we started 3-0 and we’ve lost the last two against two good teams, you can find yourself questioning things. But we’re just sticking together, sticking to the game plan, and, again, trusting the process.”
There has been a clear sense of urgency at One Bills Drive, enough to prompt a meeting Wednesday of the leadership council.
“I think the main thing was just not to freak out and panic,” linebacker Terrel Bernard said. “You know, we are sure of who we are as a team. Obviously, there’s some things that need to change for us to get the result that we want. But overall, we’re staying to our process and we’re doing what we have to do.
“The last couple weeks, obviously, the result hasn’t been there. But I think the DNA and the characteristics of our team have shown up, and we’ll go and grow with that. As long as we’re taking care of what we need to throughout the week, the result on game day will happen.”
One of the problems, though, is the Bills have many new players and a youthful roster. Consequently, there can be a lack of cohesion and understanding of maintaining the focus necessary during the week of practice and meetings to reverse their fortunes.
Sean McDermott said it’s up to his veteran leaders to show their younger teammates the way through the storm.
“We talked about it a little bit (Wednesday) morning of, ‘Hey, the one thing we can control is how prepared we are in our preparation,’ ” the coach said. “And those young players, they don’t know because they’re coming from college. They think they know, but they don’t until you learn the hard way. And so, it’s their job, these veterans, to lead by example, first and foremost, that these young players see this is what it’s supposed to look like to get it to the standard that we expect to have around here.”
2. With the Jets firing coach Robert Saleh, the Bills will be dealing with some significant unknowns.
One is how the Jet players will respond to the move and whether appointing well-respected and well-liked defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich interim head coach will provide a sudden boost.
Another is how the Jets’ offense will look with passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach Todd Downing taking over the play-calling from offensive coordinator Nate Hackett.
“Yeah, I mean, it’s a tough situation to be in when a team fires their coach because you’re not sure how they’re going to react to that,” Allen said. “My sense is they’re going to be prepared to go Monday night, so we’re going to have to handle every shot that they throw at us and keep getting back up and moving forward.”
Ulbrich is widely seen as the most competent member of the Jets’ coaching staff and has done a superb job making the New York defense one of the NFL’s best.
Downing is expected to place much greater emphasis on the run and having a balanced attack than Hackett. Look for the Bills’ defense to get a heavy dose of running backs Breece Hall, who has only carried 65 times for 197 yards through five games, and rookie Braelon Hall, who has only had 37 rushing attempts for 143 yards. That figures to be the Jets’ best path to victory.
3. Running also figures to be the Bills’ best path to victory.
Much of that will, of course, depend on the health of James Cook, who is listed as questionable with a toe injury. Though Cook told reporters Saturday he’ll “see what, how I feel on Monday,” the agency that represents him, LAA, says the running back plans to play, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Regardless, Cook’s backups, Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis should get some carries, with the extent of their workload likely dependent on Cook’s status. Brady also needs to avoid abandoning the run as quickly as he has the past two games.
“Number one, I think establishing the run and making sure we can try to commit to that,” Allen said. “… I thought we ran it well last year against them (at Highmark Stadium). But it wasn’t like this crazy 300-yard run or pass game. It was just kind of a good balanced attack that we’re going to have to utilize going forward, and especially against this team because they’re playing some really good football right now.”
4. Josh Allen must get back on track.
It won’t be easy. He’ll be facing a strong pass rush and a highly talented secondary.
Allen’s biggest opponent, though, is himself. He needs to stop pressing, be more poised and show a greater sense of command.
“Yeah, I mean, you go through a season, it’s never a straight line in terms of the path to success,” McDermott said. “And you’ve got to go through the ebbs and flows of the season and manage them. And sometimes it’s a gentle reminder here of, ‘Ok, yeah, this is the way that I’ve got to go about it and … doing my one-eleventh.’ And I know Josh is as competitive as there is, and we have full confidence in him. I’m confident he’ll get back to doing that, and that’s important for us.”
“Well, I’ve got to be better,” Allen said. “Ball placement and, again, a couple throws that I wish I could have had back this last game. But just making sure that we’re on the same page and it starts with the quarterback, and that’s on me.”
It will also help if his receivers stop struggling to gain separation in coverage. How much of that is fixable through coaching is uncertain, but it’s something that must be addressed.
“The group of guys that we have in this (receiver) room are special,” Allen said. “They work hard and they’re smart football players and I’ve got no doubt and I’ve got a lot of trust in these guys. So, we’re just going to keep our head down and focus on the process more than the result. I know the result hasn't been great the last couple weeks. But that’s the name of the game. That’s why we play, go out there and test our strengths against their strengths and figure out what our weakness is on and continue to work on those, so that’s what we’re going to continue to do.”
5. Don’t give Aaron Rodgers an opportunity to get hot, something he’s still capable of doing.
That means applying steady pressure, especially given that Rodgers suffered an ankle injury last week against Minnesota and missed all but the first four snaps of last season with a damaged Achilles. The more he’s forced to move, the less comfortable he will be and the better the Bills’ chances of forcing him into errant throws and/or turnovers.
Rookie defensive tackle DeWayne Carter, stepping in for injured Ed Oliver for the second straight game, needs to have another strong performance like the one he had against Houston last week. If Carter can consistently get push up the middle, that should disrupt Rodgers, particularly on longer-developing pass plays, while also helping the edge rushers to get to the quarterback.
The Bills’ pass coverage should get a boost from the return of safety Taylor Rapp from concussion protocol and the possible return of nickel back Taron Johnson, who is listed as questionable with an injured forearm. Cole Bishop and Cam Lewis, respectively, have left plenty of slack in their place.
“He’s seen everything,” Bernard said of Rodgers. “And that’s going to be a huge part, just trying to muddy up the picture pre-snap. He does a great job with his snap count and how he manipulates defenses to kind of show what they’re in. So, going into it, working it this week and just being prepared for that, muddying up the look as much as possible so he doesn’t know what we’re in pre-snap."