ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night at Hard Rock Stadium:
1. Seizing the opportunity to win the AFC East and secure the No. 2 seed in the conference playoffs should be the Bills’ lone focus when it comes to reaching the postseason.
There are other paths that can assure them of a wild-card berth before kickoff regardless of the outcome Sunday night. There’s the distinct possibility they’ll get the necessary help that removes the lose-and-go-home pressure that otherwise would be present.
But no matter how far the Bills have come since their season skidded off the road two months ago, their 2023 campaign cannot be measured by the ability to simply make the playoffs. Much more is expected of this team because, regardless of how the season unfolded, it has been built to win the Super Bowl next month. Anything short of that would have to be viewed as a failure, especially for a club that has an 18-2 regular-season record in December and January since 2020.
If the Bills win a fourth straight division crown, they’ll be at home in the first round to face either Indianapolis or Houston. After that, they would be at home again, probably to face Kansas City. If the Bills lose Sunday night but get the No. 6 seed, their wild-card and divisional games would be at Kansas City and at top-seeded Baltimore.
If the Bills are what they were supposed to be, they beat the Dolphins for the second time this season.
“When there’s a little added pressure, I feel like that’s when we really play our best,” Gabe Davis said. “I feel like we’ve really been playing really well, being more consistent. Obviously, there’s things you always need to clean up. But having our backs against the wall, I think, is our most comfortable spot.”
2. Josh Allen must deliver a far better performance than he has the past two weeks.
These are the situations when a franchise quarterback can look like nothing less than, well, a franchise quarterback. Allen didn’t resemble that player against the Chargers on Dec. 23 or the Patriots last Sunday. He has missed badly on too many throws and generally looked out of sorts, despite delivering in the clutch.
History is on Allen’s side. He’s 10-2 against the Dolphins, including the playoffs. He had the only perfect passer rating (158.3) of his career in the Bills’ 48-20 Week 4 win against Miami.
Allen can leave no doubt Sunday night that the team is strapped to his back, and he’s ready to carry it all the way to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl. It’s as important to rebuilding some of his own confidence, which looked to be lacking a bit a week ago, as it is to the swagger of the whole team.
That doesn’t mean Allen has to resort to hero ball, forcing throws and doing other reckless things that cause the Bills to self-destruct. It means he has to be sharp and efficient and, above all, consistently make good decisions.
Assuming the shoulder and finger injuries he sustained against New England don’t limit his ability to make throws, there should be no excuses for Allen to be the best version of himself.
3. How will Joe Brady do in his battle of X-and-O wits with Vic Fangio?
Let the record show that the man Brady replaced in November as the Bills’ offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey, was running Buffalo’s offense in the Week 4 beatdown the Dolphins received at Highmark Stadium. Dorsey’s scheme and play-calling not only got the best out of Allen that day, but it also allowed Stefon Diggs to be the explosive force he has not come close to being since Brady took over.
All of that happened against Fangio, the Dolphins’ veteran defensive coordinator who is regarded as one of the very best in his profession. Dorsey had answers for Fangio’s zone-blitz-based defense, avoiding the impact of the various pressure packages and coverages designed to confuse and frustrate quarterbacks and OCs. The Bills’ struggles on offense in the following weeks would ultimately lead to Dorsey’s exit, but he will be able to claim what, for the moment, a large piece of the Bills’ best offensive showing of the season.
“I mean, it’s the same offense,” Davis said. “We were just clicking. We clicked more than we did all season that game. I feel it’s that simple.”
Nevertheless, Brady faces a tall challenge, even with Miami missing two key defensive players: edge rusher Bradley Chubb and cornerback Xavien Howard. Opposing defenses have a larger sample size of his tendencies in game-planning and play-calling. That was particularly evident against Bill Belichick’s Patriot defense, which showed looks that the Bills’ offense had not anticipated.
Given the Dolphins’ high-scoring and quick-striking offense, Brady will likely need to shift away from some of his more conservative, methodical tendencies and open the throttle on the Bills’ passing game.
4. For the Bills’ defense, the task is straightforward but not easy.
At the top of the to-do list is not allowing Tyreek Hill to break the game open the way he does with his incredible speed and ability to catch the deep ball. Buffalo’s defenders need to concentrate on preventing Hill from getting behind them. That could come at the expense of reducing the amount of blitzing they do against Tua Tagovaiola, because that would require leaving less coverage on Hill.
For all the criticism Sean McDermott receives for playing safeties ultra-deep, this is one time where it probably makes sense.
5. It will be another Buffalo takeover at Hard Rock Stadium.
Bills fans have long been known for traveling as well as those of any team in the league. They show up in particularly strong numbers for games at Miami. Besides the faithful that travel in droves from Western New York to South Florida, there are numerous Buffalo followers who either live in Dolphin territory or spend the winter months there.
It isn’t an exaggeration to expect that roughly half of the stadium, if not more, will consist of Bills fans. There undoubtedly will be times when the Dolphins’ offense will be forced to use a silent count the way a visiting team does.
If the Bills are able to gain control early and maintain momentum into the second half, Dolphin fans will be heading for the exits and the place will have the full feel of a Buffalo home game.