ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Here are my five thoughts on the Buffalo Bills’ game against the Houston Texans Sunday at NRG Stadium:
1. This isn’t only a revenge game for Stefon Diggs. It’s every bit as much a revenge game for Josh Allen, too.
For Diggs, it’s his best opportunity to remind the Bills of exactly how much they were subtracting by deciding that trading him to the Texans in April was addition by subtraction.
For Allen, it’s his best opportunity to show the Bills’ passing game is better off with a group of receivers that, as the quarterback has pointed out, aren’t concerned with stats – a clear shot at Diggs.
Diggs left the Bills without a No. 1 receiver, but he does not fill that role with the 3-1 Texans. Nico Collins is their top pass-catcher, leading the NFL with 489 receiving yards. Diggs ranks second on the Texans in receptions (25), receiving yards (233), and is tied for first with two receiving touchdowns.
There’s nothing about Allen’s performance so far that says he or the 3-1 Bills sorely miss Diggs. He leads the NFL with a 7-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s the only passer who has not thrown an interception this season and ranks second with a 116.5 passer rating.
It can be argued that Allen’s lack of interceptions stems, at least to some extent, from no longer feeling the need to force the ball to Diggs. It can also be argued that minus Diggs, the Bills’ passing game doesn’t pose the kind of threat that forces defenses to focus attention on any single player enough to allow others to consistently get open.
Buffalo’s receivers struggled mightily to gain separation from defenders in last Sunday night’s blowout loss at Baltimore. The chore won’t likely get any easier with Kahlil Shakir, who leads the Bills with 18 receptions for 230 yards and two TDs, out with an ankle injury.
One game, regardless of the outcome or how Diggs and Allen play, won’t settle the revenge issue. However, one way or another, it will extend the life-after-Diggs conversation/debate.
There’s no denying that, for most of their time together from 2020 to 2023, Allen and Diggs did plenty to allow each other to reach the top of his game and make the Bills a serious Super Bowl contender
“I got a lot of love for him, I still do,” Allen said. “The things that he did for me in my career and the things he did in the Buffalo Bill uniform won’t be forgotten any time soon, especially from me.”
2. The Bills’ defense desperately needs to make amends after a humiliating effort against the Ravens.
The good news for the Bills is that the Texans have nothing approaching the rushing attack that Baltimore possesses with freakishly strong and fast Derrick Henry working behind an ultra-physical offensive line. They rank 20th in the league with an average of 106.8 yards rushing per game. Their best running back, Joe Mixon, will miss his third game in a row with an ankle injury.
The bad news is that the Bills will be without one of their better run-stuffers, tackle Ed Oliver, who suffered a hamstring injury in practice this week. Their defense could get a lift with the possible returns of linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) and nickel back Taron Johnson (forearm), both of whom are listed as questionable.
No matter who plays, the Bills must establish from the beginning that they won’t be bullied at the line of scrimmage as they were Sunday night.
“It starts by being more physical, making sure we’re playing better at the points of attack, and that mindset has to be there for us,” Sean McDermott said. "So, we’ll go out and we’ll continue to home in our fundamentals that are necessary to be better against the run.”
3. The Bills’ D has more to worry about than not being mauled for the second straight week.
The Texans have a dynamic young quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who turned 23 this week. He’s one of only two quarterbacks this season with 1,000-plus passing yards and six-plus passing touchdowns (Dak Prescott of Dallas is the other).
Though the Bills have done a good job of preventing opponents from beating them deep through the air, they will face their greatest test in that regard Sunday. Stroud has the NFL’s second-most downfield pass yards in the league this season (547), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He has a strong, accurate passing arm and the ability to use his feet to buy time for his receivers to get open. He also has an array of dangerous receivers in Collins, Diggs and Tank Dell, who is looking to return from a chest injury.
The Bills won’t be helped by the fact their top safety, Taylor Rapp, will miss the game with a concussion. That will likely mean more playing time for rookie Cole Bishop, who McDermott said is “only going to grow” from some of the rough moments he had against the Ravens.
Buffalo’s pass defense could be further compromised by the absence of Von Miller, who is serving a four-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. Though Miller barely played against Baltimore, he has three sacks and has helped the Bills’ pass rush overall.
“Very talented football team, very talented offensively,” McDermott said of the Texans. “Extremely talented on the perimeter of their offense with the receiving corps. And, you know, it’s really hard to stop all of them, because you don’t have enough guys to double-team all of them there, so we’ll have our work cut out for us.”
4. The Bills’ offensive line figures to have his hands full dealing with the Texans’ pass rush.
Houston ranks fifth in the NFL with a 11.97% sacks per attempt rate. The Texans’ defensive line is led by talented edge rushers Will Anderson Jr., and Danielle Hunter, and has a solid rotation that includes former Bill Jerry Hughes, though he has been injured.
“I think they’ve got a couple of ends that are really fast,” Allen said. “They do a good job of getting to the quarterback. In the back end, obviously everyone knows the corner they got in Derek Stingley. Great young player who seemingly makes plays on the ball week in and week out.
“So, we’ve gotta make sure we’re aware of what we’re doing and sticking to the game plan of what we got. I trust Joe (Brady) and the offensive staff to put together something good and it’s our job to go out there and execute it.”
Allen used his weekly news conference to seemingly send an interesting message to Brady regarding rookie receiver Keon Coleman, who made two impressive, contested catches against the Ravens: “The body control that he has, I’ve said this time and time again, he does a great job of fighting for the ball when it’s in the air. We’ve got to start attacking a little bit more downfield with him. If guys are going to want to sit and take some opportunities downfield, then he’s going to have to go make some plays for us like he did this last game in the second half.”
5. This shapes up as a close, competitive game that the Bills should win.
The Texans have significant strengths on both sides of the ball, but they are highly undisciplined. They lead the NFL with 40 penalties. The Bills are near the bottom of the league with 20.
This sets up an opportunity to rebound from the ugly loss against the Ravens in a big way. The Bills’ schedule looks mostly soft after Sunday with their next two games against the Jets (at MetLife Stadium) and Tennessee (at home). A tough trip to Seattle follows on Oct. 27, but after that the Bills face Miami and Indianapolis.